Abstract
Professional and academic economists employ a variety of techniques and commit significant amounts of time and financial resources for the purpose of producing macroeconomic forecasts. This chapter illustrates the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in forecasting.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
An alternative measure of U.S. aggregate economic activity is now used by the U.S. Department of Commerce: namely, gross domestic product (GDP), which nets out international factor payments and receipts. We will continue to cite GNP patterns in this chapter for historical purposes. Currently, real GNP is running slightly higher than real GDP.
Bibliography
Adams FG (1986) The business forecasting revolution. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Council of Economic Advisors (1993) Economic Report of the President
Fair RC (1984) Specification, estimation, and analysis of Macroeconometric models. Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Forman E, Saaty TL Expert Choice Software, produced by Expert Choice, Inc., 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA
Hall TE (1990) Business cycles—The nature and causes of economic fluctuation. Praeger, New York
Hershey RD Jr (1992) June 18, Good Riddance to Recession? New York Times, 1992
Hershey RD Jr, (1992) December 23, This Just In: Recession Ended 21 Months Ago, New York Times, 1992
Miller GA (1956) The magical number seven plus or minus two: some limits on our capacity of processing information. Psychol Rev 63:81–97
Saaty TL, Vargas LG (1991) Prediction, projection and forecasting. Kluwer Academic, Boston
Saaty TL (1990) Multicriteria decision making: the analytic hierarchy process. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh
Saaty TL, Alexander JM (1989) Conflict resolution: the analytic hierarchy approach. Praeger, New York
Saaty TL, Kearns KP (1985) Analytical planning: the organization of systems. Pergamon Press, New York
Sorkin AL (1988) Monetary and fiscal policy and business cycles in the modern Era. Lexington Books, Lexington
U.S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, various issues
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Saaty, T.L., Vargas, L.G. (2012). Incorporating Expert Judgment in Economic Forecasts: The Case of the U.S. Economy in 1992. In: Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 175. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3597-6_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3597-6_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-3596-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-3597-6
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsBusiness and Management (R0)