Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment, Refinement, and Narrowing of Options

  • Chapter
Book cover Tools to Aid Environmental Decision Making

Abstract

Suppose you are a manager who must decide which of your employees to promote to an important, decision-making position. You chose your two top performers as candidates and evaluate their decision-making styles. One, you discover, makes decisions with logic. She collects the relevant information, analyzes the options, and assesses the uncertainties. Her choices nearly always produce good results. Occasionally, however, things have turned out less than perfect because of circumstances impossible to foresee. The other candidate, you find, has had a string of remarkable successes, but bases all of his choices on the flip of a “special” 1964 quarter that was left in his office by a previous employee. What should you do?

“Deliberate as often as you please, but when you decide it is once for all.” Publilius Syrus, Sententiae, No. 132

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Abelson, P. 1979. Cost-Benefit Analysis and Environmental Problems Westmead, England: Saxon House.

    Google Scholar 

  • Akland, G.G. et al. 1985. Measuring human exposures to carbon monoxide in Washington, D.C. and Denver, CO., during the winter of 1982–83. Environmental Science Technology 27:369.

    Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong, J.S. and MacGregor, D. 1994. Judgmental decomposition: When does it work? International Journal of Forecasting 10:495–506.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beanlands, G.E. and Duinker, P.N. 1983. An Ecological Framework for Environmental Impact Assessment in Canada. Halifax, Nova Scotia: Institute for Resources and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bitz, D.A., Berry, D.L., and Jardine, L.J. 1993. Decision and Systems Analysis for Underground Storage Tank Waste Remediation System, SAND94–0065. Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cairns, J., Jr., Dickson, K.L., and Maki, A.W. (Eds.). 1978. Estimating the Hazard of Chemical Substances to Aquatic Life STP 657. Philadelphia: American Society for Testing and Materials.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Center for Chemical of Process Safety (CCPS). 1995. Tools for Making Acute Risk Decisions. New York: American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheshire, R.A. 1991. Introduction to Environmental decision making. In: R.A. Cheshire and S. Carlisle (Eds.), Environmental Decision Making: A Multidisciplinary Perspective. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. Pp. 1–13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Churchman, C. 1961. Prediction and Optimal Decision: Philosophical Issues of a Science of Values. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management (CRAM). 1996. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Regulatory Decision-Making. (Draft.)

    Google Scholar 

  • Washington, D.C.: Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management. Covello, V.T. and Merkhofer, M.W. 1993. Risk Assessment Methods: Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental Risks. New York: Plenum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Curtis, T. and Michaels, T. 1996. Risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis: The states’ perspective. Inside EPA’s Risk Policy Report 3(8):29–30 (August 23).

    Google Scholar 

  • Demski, J. 1972. Information Analysis. Menlo Park, CA: Addison-Wesley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dowlatabadi, H. and Morgan, M.G. 1993. Integrated assessment of climate change. Science 259:1813.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Dummet, M. 1984. Voting Procedures. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyer, J.S. 1990. Remarks on the analytic hierarchy process, Management Science 36(3):249–258.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, W. and Barron, F.H. 1994. SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved simple methods for multi-attribute utility measurement. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 60:306–325.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Finkel, A.M. 1994. Stepping out of your own shadow: A didactic example of how facing uncertainty can improve decision-making. Risk Analysis 14(5):751–761.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B. 1979. Informed consent in societal risk-benefit decision. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 13:347–357.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., and Lichtenstein, S. 1980. Knowing what you want: Measuring labile values. In: T.S. Wallsten (Ed.). Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Pp. 117–142.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gots, R. 1992. Toxic Risks: Science, Regulation, and Perception. Boca Raton, FL: Lewis Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gramlich, E.M. 1990. A Guide to Benefit-Cost Analysis 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howard, R.A. 1968. The foundations of decision analysis. IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics SSC-4(3):211–219.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karr, J.R. 1991. Biological integrity: A long-neglected aspect of water resource management. Ecological Applications 1:66–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keeney, R.L. 1992. Value Focused Thinking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keeney, R.L. and Raiffa, H. 1976. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly, J.S. 1987. Social Choice Theory. New York: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kepner, C.H. and Tregoe, B.B. 1981. The New Rational Manager. London: John Martin Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krawiec, F. 1984. Evaluating and selecting research projects by scoring. Research Management 27(2):21–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kusnic, M.W. and Owen, D. 1992. The unifying process: Value beyond traditional decision analysis and multiple decision-maker environments. Interfaces 22(6):150–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCormick, N.J. 1981. Reliability and Risk Analysis. New York: Academic.

    Google Scholar 

  • Merkhofer, M.W., Conway, R., and Anderson, R.G. 1997. Multi-attribute utility analysis as a framework for public participation in siting a hazardous waste management facility. Environmental Management 21(6):831–839.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merkhofer, M.W. 1987. Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experiences, and insights. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics SMC17(5):741–752.

    Google Scholar 

  • Merkhofer, M.W. and Keeney, R.L. 1987. A multiattribute utility analysis of alternative sites for the disposal of nuclear waste. Risk Analysis 7(2):173–194.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Merkhofer, M.W. and Korsan, R.J. 1978. Florida Utility Pollution Control Options and Economic Analysis-Volume 2: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Alternative Florida Sulfur Oxide Emissions Control Policies. SRI final report, project 5,080. Menlo Park, CA: SRI International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, M.G. 1981. Probing the question of technology-induced risk. IEEE Spectrum 18(11):58–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, N.G. et al. 1992. Communicating risk to the public. Environmental Science and Technology 26:2048–2056.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mumpower, J.L. et al. 1987. Expert Judgment and Expert Systems. New York: Springer-Verlag.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC). 1978. Saccharin: Technical Assessment of Risks and Benefits. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC). 1989. Improving Risk Communication. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oliver, R.M. and Smith, J.Q. 1988. Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets, and Decision Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poucet, A. 1990. STARS: Knowledge based tools for safety and reliability analysis. In: G.E. Apostolakis and P. Kafka (Eds.). The Role and Use of Personal Computers in Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Decision Making. New York: Elsevier. Pp. 379–397.

    Google Scholar 

  • Riggs, J.L. and West, T.M. 1986. Essentials of Engineering Economics. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saaty, T.L. 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silvers, A. and Hakkarinen, C. 1987. Materials damage from air pollutants. EPRI Journal 12(6):58–59.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, H.A. 1976. Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-Making Process in Administrative Organization. 3rd ed. New York: The Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, J.E. and Nau, R. 1995. Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis. Management Science 41(5):795–815.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stewart, D., Treshow, M., and Harner, F.M. 1973. Pathological anatomy of coniferous needle necrosis. Canadian Journal of Botany 51(5):983.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suter, G.W. (Ed.). 1993. Ecological Risk Assessment. Chelsea, MI: Lewis Publishers. U.S. Environmental Protection

    Google Scholar 

  • Agency (EPA). 1990. Hazard ranking system, Final rule. Federal Register 55:51532–51667.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vesely, W.E., Goldberg, E.F., Roberts, N.H., and Haasl, D.F. 1981. Fault Tree Handbook NUREG/CR-0492. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O. 1947. Theories of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker, W.E. 1986. Use of screening in policy analysis. Management Science 32(4):389–402.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westman, W.E. 1985. Ecology, Impact Assessment, and Environmental Planning. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • White, D.J. 1975. Decision Methodology. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors
  1. Miley W. Merkhofer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Lynn C. Maxwell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6036, USA

    Virginia H. Dale (Senior Scientist) (Senior Scientist)

  2. Energy, Environment and Resources Center, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996-4134, USA

    Mary R. English (Research Leader) (Research Leader)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1999 Springer Science+Business Media New York

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Merkhofer, M.W., Maxwell, L.C. (1999). Assessment, Refinement, and Narrowing of Options. In: Dale, V.H., English, M.R. (eds) Tools to Aid Environmental Decision Making. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1418-2_8

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1418-2_8

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-387-98556-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-1418-2

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation