Abstract
Nowcasting global solar irradiance on very short time horizons is the principal topic discussed in this chapter. Various ARIMA models for nowcasting clearness index are inferred and assessed. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during June 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used for setting up and testing the models. First-order differencing ARIMA models have proven suitable for nowcasting instantaneous values of the clearness index components, beam and global. The model performance is studied as a function of forecasting time horizon and season. The model’s accuracy goes down with increased time horizon. It is shown that the model’s accuracy increases with the stability of the solar radiative regime. The second subject discussed in this chapter is forecasting daily global solar irradiation for the next day, also using ARIMA models.
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Paulescu, M., Paulescu, E., Gravila, P., Badescu, V. (2013). Time Series Forecasting. In: Weather Modeling and Forecasting of PV Systems Operation. Green Energy and Technology. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4649-0_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4649-0_6
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