Aspects of seismic hazard assessments specific to Vrancea intermediate earthquakes are presented in the current paper. Three methods were employed to make estimates: (a) classical Gutenberg-Richter (1956), (b) maximum entropy principle (MEP) modified for estimating the recurrence of strong earthquakes (Berril and Davis, 1980; Dong et al., 1984) and (c) Huo and Hwang's (1994) modification of the recurrence law containing characteristics of a stochastic distribution. An analysis of recurrence relationships was performed for two types of magnitudes, for different time intervals and by assigning alternative values of maximum possible earthquake magnitude. The probability of an earthquake occurring in a specified magnitude range and in a specified time limit was estimated. The dependence of final estimates on the choice of values of M min and M max and on sample size was demonstrated. From an analysis of established intervals of recurrence it follows that the recurrence period of earthquakes with M = 7.0 is from 30 to 60 years with a relatively high probability of R = 0.5–0.7 (for T = 50 years). For magnitude M G-R = 7.5 (M w = 7.7) the recurrence interval varies from 100 (most pessimistic estimation) to 380 years (most optimistic estimation) with a probability of R = 0.1–0.25 (for T = 50 of years).
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Ginsari, V. (2008). Estimation Of The Recurrence And Probability Of Vrancea Intermediate Depth Earthquakes. In: Zaicenco, A., Craifaleanu, I., Paskaleva, I. (eds) Harmonization of Seismic Hazard in Vrancea Zone. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9242-8_5
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