2030: Another Europe?

Abstract

This chapter presents the results of a Europe-wide research project based on a policy Delphi, the aim of which was to design population and society scenarios up to 2030. The policy Delphi is a research method particularly suitable to allow experts, working independently, to act as a whole while dealing with complex problems. We used the Delphi technique as a method of social construction of scenarios in the field of population and welfare polices. Three main issues were dealt with in terms of policy developments: population ageing, family and fertility, and gender roles. Scenarios were designed following the inputs, comments and suggestions provided by the 15–20 “experts” selected in each country (totalling 250 experts) who collectively contributed towards the creation of the scenarios through an iterative, innovative multi-method approach which integrates Delphi, Appreciative Inquiry and SWOT analysis. The experts~– who are strictly anonymous~– were all influential persons who may well help re-shape the future.