Anticipated Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Behaviour Among the Childless and Among One-Child Parents

Abstract

The fertility level has fallen to clearly below replacement level in most European countries. However, not many European governments have put low fertility on the political agenda. The development of family policies is still scattered; there is no consensus as to which policy measures to pursue, and governments’ expectations vary regarding the impact of family policies. In this article, we look at expectations as to the impact of the introduction of preferred family policy measures on fertility behaviour from the point of view of the national populations themselves. Do Europeans think that if new or better policies are implemented, they might have their desired child sooner, or that they might increase their number of children? And do these expectations vary across European countries, and between socio-demographic groups within each country? Using PPA survey data, we examine the anticipated impact of family policies on fertility behaviour among the two groups with the highest intention to have a(nother) child: childless people and one-child parents. Furthermore, in order to obtain insight into inter-country differences, three country groups are considered, based on their recent fertility development: Lowest-, low-, and moderate-fertility countries. Our results show that there is considerable scope for governments to persuade people to bring forward the timing of childbearing, or to have more children, by introducing specific family policies. While minor differences in the anticipated impact of family policies do exist between socio-demographic groups, there is considerable variation between the TFR country groups: The anticipated impact is especially large in those countries in which fertility is currently lowest.