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Stochastic Variation in Avian Survival Rates: Life-History Predictions, Population Consequences, and the Potential Responses to Human Perturbations and Climate Change

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Book cover Modeling Demographic Processes In Marked Populations

Part of the book series: Environmental and Ecological Statistics ((ENES,volume 3))

Abstract

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister (1998) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Alaska Science Center, U. S. Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA

    Joel A. Schmutz

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  1. Joel A. Schmutz
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Correspondence to Joel A. Schmutz .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse Strasse 1, D18057 Rostock, Germany

    David L Thomson

  2. Netherlands Institute of Ecology Centre for Terrestrial Ecology, Boterhoeksestraat 48, Postbus 40, 6666 ZG Heteren, Netherlands

    David L Thomson

  3. School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong

    David L Thomson

  4. Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Evan G. Cooch

  5. D.B. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA

    Michael J. Conroy

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Schmutz, J.A. (2009). Stochastic Variation in Avian Survival Rates: Life-History Predictions, Population Consequences, and the Potential Responses to Human Perturbations and Climate Change. In: Thomson, D.L., Cooch, E.G., Conroy, M.J. (eds) Modeling Demographic Processes In Marked Populations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, vol 3. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-78151-8_19

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