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Computational Intelligence Techniques in Earth and Environmental Sciences

pp 53-78

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Exploring the Behavior and Changing Trends of Rainfall and Temperature Using Statistical Computing Techniques

  • Abdus Salam AzadAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Email author 
  • , Md. Kamrul HasanAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
  • , M. Arif Imtiazur RahmanAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
  • , Md. Mustafizur RahmanAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
  • , Nashid ShahriarAffiliated withDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

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Abstract

The present study aimed at quantifying the change in surface air temperature and monthly total rainfall. The changing trend was detected using Mann–Kendall trend test, seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test, and Sen’s slope estimator. K-means clustering algorithm was used to identify the rainfall distribution patterns over the years and also their changes with time. A comparative analysis was done among different time series prediction models to find out their suitability for forecasting daily temperature in climatic condition of Bangladesh. The analysis was performed using daily temperature and rainfall data of more than last 40 years (till 2009). The study found an increasing trend in maximum temperature during June to November and in minimum temperature during December to January in Bangladesh. There has been seen no significant change in rainfall over the years. However on the western side of the country, the amount of rain is significantly less than the eastern side. The study found that different prediction models were appropriate for different conditions.

Keywords

Climate change K-means clustering algorithm Mann–Kendall trend test Sen’s slope estimator Data mining Pattern recognition Time series prediction Statistical analysis