Scenario analysis of cement production in China: the role of policy and technology in the pathway to sustainable society

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China’s annual cement production is by far the largest in the world. Although it is a necessity for economic development, its production requires huge amount of energy inputs, adversely affecting sustainable development. In this paper, we identify the determination of cement demand in China and demonstrate scenario analysis toward 2015. We demonstrate that while technological development in the cement industry in China is important in terms of reducing energy input, the most critical factor is to achieve balanced economic growth. In particular, our results suggest the importance of the achievement of the economic growth target in the 12th Five-Years-Initiative of China, addressing the effective urban planning and financial mechanism for technological development and diffusion.