Multi-Scale Projections Of Weather And Climate At The Uk Met Office

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Abstract

Due to the availability of unprecedented computational power, national meteorological and hydrological services have had the opportunity to push the limit of predictability beyond the 2 weeks Lorenz suggested in 1963. This has been largely possible through the use of ensemble modelling. The adoption of such a technique has had a twofold effect: by averaging out the most unpredictable scales an ensemble average could directly increase forecast skill; ensembles also provide an estimate of uncertainty. This paper analyses the sources of predictability at different time scales and shows how the ensemble technique has been successfully used to inform decisions on time scales ranging from days to centuries.