Seismic Risk Assessment and Retrofitting

Volume 10 of the series Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering pp 343-365


How to Predict the Probability of Collapse of Non-Ductile Building Structures

  • Helmut KrawinklerAffiliated withDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University Email author 
  • , Dimitrios G. LignosAffiliated withDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University

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This chapter attempts to cover the range from rigorous probabilistic collapse prediction of short period low-ductility buildings to simplified assessment of the collapse potential. The rigorous collapse predictions are based on modeling the deteriorating properties of structural elements with low ductility and predicting the collapse capacity for a given structural configuration and ground motion through incremental dynamic analysis. Consideration is given to the variation in collapse capacity due to randomness of the ground motion. A parameter study is summarized in which the effects of strength and deformation capacity on the collapse potential of frames with infill walls is evaluated. It is found that shear strength has the largest effect on the collapse capacity, and that deformation capacity and residual strength are of less importance.