Spatial Analyses for Policy Evaluation of the Rural World: Portuguese Agriculture in the Last Decade

Abstract

The scope of this paper is twofold: addressing a specific problem concerning the effectiveness of the CAP, it develops an extensive empirical and methodological framework able to serve as a model-policy lesson for the rural/agricultural European future. The paper aims to contribute to the understanding of structural land use changes that are occurring in rural environments, by using novel methodologies related to Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The land use change analysis developed in this study is associated with a pre-selected set of policy issues and supplies a retrospective view of the application of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the Portuguese case. The evaluation of the respective impacts from a spatial perspective raises questions such as: 1) What are the trade-offs of rural activity in different sectors and regions? 2) How do such trade-offs cope with urban proximity? and 3) Which activities or strategies are best able to balance the needs of rural and urban communities?

The application of our model shows the extent of land use change in the country and, in particular, when related to the irrigated surface and vineyards. It also demonstrates a reallocation of agricultural production to town proximity, reducing energy costs. But, the major conclusion of the work is that the use of the CAP financial support has accentuated the asymmetric distribution of crops in Portugal.

Annex: Changes in Agricultural Land, 1990–2000

	Types of land cover	Pixels 1990	% CLC 1990	Pixels 2000	% CLC 2000	%Variation
North	Dry lands	15,274,079	44.95	14,996,963	42.72	−1.81
	Irrigated lands	2,300,579	6.77	2,269,421	6.46	−1.35
	Rice fields	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
	Vineyards	7,826,307	23.03	8,975,078	25.57	14.68
	Fruit trees	2,486,244	6.32	2,716,682	7.74	9.27
	Olives	4,507,380	13.27	4,565,293	13.00	1.28
	Pastures	1,582,459	4.66	1,582,619	4.51	0.01
	Total	33,977,048		35,106,056		3.32
Lisbon	Dry lands	1,324,335	3.90	982,054	2.80	−25.85
	Irrigated lands	1,061,423	3.12	1,853,100	5.28	74.59
	Rice fields	294,938	0.87	333,559	0.95	13.09
	Vineyards	1,064,852	3.13	1,111,742	3.17	4.40
	Fruit trees	66,779	0.20	58,879	0.17	−11.83
	Olives	53,638	0.16	40,873	0.12	−23.80
	Pastures	774,485	2.28	267,035	0.76	−65.52
	Total	4,640,450		4,647,242		0.15
Centre	Dry lands	14,798,109	43.55	14,239,093	40.56	−3.78
	Irrigated lands	3,086,741	9.08	3,749,816	10.68	21.48
	Rice fields	1,214,193	3.57	1,223,383	3.48	0.76
	Vineyards	8,828,776	25.98	9,235,840	26.31	4.61
	Fruit trees	3,536,422	10.41	3,604,428	10.27	1.92
	Olives	7,810,756	22.99	7,526,179	21.44	−3.64
	Pastures	620,847	1.83	631,089	1.80	1.65
	Total	39,895,844		40,209,828		0.79
Alentejo	Dry lands	83,800,186	246.64	77,960,361	222.07	−6.97
	Irrigated lands	5,610,184	16.51	11,265,299	32.09	100.80
	Rice fields	4,069,514	11.98	3,779,804	10.77	−7.12
	Vineyards	2,800,732	8.24	3,816,999	10.87	36.29
	Fruit trees	595,240	1.75	688,492	1.96	15.67
	Olives	15,423,883	45.40	14,879,431	42.38	−3.53
	Pastures	2,191,896	6.45	1,103,688	3.14	−49.65
	Total	1.14E + 08		1.13E + 08		−0.87
Algarve	Dry lands	1,249,355	3.68	1,099,069	3.13	−12.03
	Irrigated lands	231,919	0.68	295,215	0.84	27.29
	Rice fields	4,968	0.01	0.00	0.00	−100.00
	Vineyards	68,972	0.20	143,693	0.41	108.34
	Fruit trees	2,823,058	8.31	2,921,376	8.32	3.48
	Olives	13,112	0.04	16,623	0.05	26.78
	Pastures	141,112	0.42	194,037	0.55	37.51
	Total	4,532,496		4,670,013		3.03

1. Source: Own calculations