Mining Latent Sources of Causal Time Series Using Nonlinear State Space Modeling

  • Wei-Shing Chen
  • Fong-Jung Yu
Conference paper

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-20039-7_14

Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 6591)
Cite this paper as:
Chen WS., Yu FJ. (2011) Mining Latent Sources of Causal Time Series Using Nonlinear State Space Modeling. In: Nguyen N.T., Kim CG., Janiak A. (eds) Intelligent Information and Database Systems. ACIIDS 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 6591. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

Abstract

Data mining refers to use of new methods for the intelligent analysis of large data sets. This paper applies one of nonlinear state space modeling (NSSM) techniques named nonlinear dynamical factor analysis (NDFA) to mine the latent factors which are the original sources for producing the observations of causal time series. The purpose of mining indirect sources rather than the time series observation is that much better results can be obtained from the latent sources, for example, economics data driven by an "explanatory variables" like inflation, unobserved trends and fluctuations. The effectiveness of NDFA is evaluated by a simulated time series data set. Our empirical study indicates the performance of NDFA is better than the independent component analysis in exploring the latent sources of Taiwan unemployment rate time series.

Keywords

Data mining latent sources time series nonlinear state space modeling nonlinear dynamical factor analysis 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Wei-Shing Chen
    • 1
  • Fong-Jung Yu
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Industrial Engineering and Technology ManagementDa-Yeh UniversityChanghuaTaiwan, R.O.C.

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