Technosocial Predictive Analytics for Illicit Nuclear Trafficking

  • Antonio Sanfilippo
  • Scott Butner
  • Andrew Cowell
  • Angela Dalton
  • Jereme Haack
  • Sean Kreyling
  • Rick Riensche
  • Amanda White
  • Paul Whitney
Conference paper

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_51

Volume 6589 of the book series Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS)
Cite this paper as:
Sanfilippo A. et al. (2011) Technosocial Predictive Analytics for Illicit Nuclear Trafficking. In: Salerno J., Yang S.J., Nau D., Chai SK. (eds) Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction. SBP 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 6589. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

Abstract

Illicit nuclear trafficking networks are a national security threat. These networks can directly lead to nuclear proliferation, as state or non-state actors attempt to identify and acquire nuclear weapons-related expertise, technologies, components, and materials. The ability to characterize and anticipate the key nodes, transit routes, and exchange mechanisms associated with these networks is essential to influence, disrupt, interdict or destroy the function of the networks and their processes. The complexities inherent to the characterization and anticipation of illicit nuclear trafficking networks requires that a variety of modeling and knowledge technologies be jointly harnessed to construct an effective analytical and decision making workflow in which specific case studies can be built in reasonable time and with realistic effort. In this paper, we explore a solution to this challenge that integrates evidentiary and dynamic modeling with knowledge management and analytical gaming, and demonstrate its application to a geopolitical region at risk.

Keywords

Illicit trafficking nuclear proliferation predictive analytics modeling knowledge management analytical gaming decision making 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Antonio Sanfilippo
    • 1
  • Scott Butner
    • 1
  • Andrew Cowell
    • 1
  • Angela Dalton
    • 1
  • Jereme Haack
    • 1
  • Sean Kreyling
    • 1
  • Rick Riensche
    • 1
  • Amanda White
    • 1
  • Paul Whitney
    • 1
  1. 1.Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryRichland