Skip to main content

Stock Market Trend Prediction Based on the LS-SVM Model Update Algorithm

  • Conference paper
ICT Innovations 2014 (ICT Innovations 2014)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 311))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

The paper proposes a trend prediction model based on an incremental training set update scheme for the BELEX15 stock market index using the Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVMs) for classification. The basic idea of this updating approach is to add the most recent data to the training set, as become available. In this way, information from new data is taken into account in model training. The test results indicate that the suggested model is suitable for short-term market trend prediction and that prediction accuracy significantly increases after the training set has been updated with new information.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Wang, Y., Choi, I.C.: Market Index and Stock Price Direction Prediction using Machine Learning Techniques: An empirical study on the KOSPI and HIS. ScienceDirect, 1–13 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Kumar, M., Thenmozhi, M.:Forecasting stock index movement: a comparison of support vector machines and random forest. In: Indian Institute of Capital Markets 9th Capital Markets Conference Paper (2006), SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=876544 , http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.876544

  3. Kara, Y., Boyacioglu, M., Baykan, Ö.K.: Predicting direction of stock price index movement using artificial neural networks and support vector machines: The sample of the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Expert Systems with Applications 38, 5311–5319 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Atsalakis, G.S., Valavanis, K.P.: Surveying stock market forecasting techniques – Part II: Soft computing methods. Expert Systems with Applications 36, 5932–5941 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Huang, W., Nakamori, Y., Wang, S.: Forecasting stock market movement direction with support vector machine. Computers & Operations Research 32, 2513–2522 (2005)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  6. Phichhang, O., Wang, H.: Prediction of Stock Market Index Movement by Ten Data Mining Techniques. Modern Applied Science 3, 28–42 (2009)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  7. Jiang, J., Song, C., Zhao, H., Wu, C., Liang, Y.: Adaptive and Iterative Least Squares Support Vector Regression Based on Quadratic Renyi Entropy. In: Granular Computing, GrC 2008, pp. 340–345. IEEE Press, New York (2008)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  8. Read, J., Bifet, A., Pfahringer, B., Holmes, G.: Batch-Incremental versus Instance-Incremental Learning in Dynamic and Evolving Data. In: Hollmén, J., Klawonn, F., Tucker, A. (eds.) IDA 2012. LNCS, vol. 7619, pp. 313–323. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  9. Doomretni, C., Giunnoepulos, D.: Incremental Support Vector Machine Construction. In: Data Mining, ICDM 2001, pp. 589–593. IEEE Press, New York (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Laskov, P., Gehl, C., Kruger, S., Muller, K.: Incremental Support Vector Learning, Analysis, Implementation and Applications. Journal of Machine Learning Research 7, 1909–1936 (2006)

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  11. Stojanović, M., Božić, M., Stajić, Z., Milošević, M.: LS-SVM model for electrical load prediction based on incremental training set update. Przegląd Elektrotechniczn 4, 195–199 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Guajardo, J.A., Weber, R., Miranda, J.: A model updating strategy for predicting time series with seasonal patterns. Applied Soft Computing 10, 276–283 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Suykens, J., Vandewalle, J.: Least Squares Support Vector Machines. Neural Processing Letters 9, 293–300 (1999)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  14. Gestel, T.V., Suykens, A.K., Baesens, B., Viaene, S., Vanthienen, J., Dedene, G., Moor, B.D., Vandewalle, J.: Benchmarking Least Squares Support Vector Machine Classifiers. Machine Learning 54, 5–32 (2004)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  15. Božić, M., Stajić, Z., Stojanović, M.: Short-term load forecasting using least square support vector machines. In: Infoteh Jahorina, pp. 326–329 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Marković, I., Stanković, J., Stojanović, M., Božić, M.: Stock exchange trend prediction of Belex15 index with LS-SVM classifier. In: XIII International Symposium Infoteh-Jahorina, pp. 739–742 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Eric, D., Andjelic, G., Redzepagic, S.: Application of MACD and RVI indicators as functions of investment strategy optimization on the financialmarket. Proceedings of the Faculty of Economics of Rijeka 27(1), 171–196 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Brabanter, K.D., Karsmakers, P., Ojeda, F., Alzate, C., Brabanter, J.D., Pelckmans, M.D.K., Vandewalle, B.J., Suykens, J.A.K.: LS-SVMlab Toolbox User’s Guide. Technical report, ESAT-SISTA (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Yuling, L., Guo, H., Hu, J.: An SVM-based Approach for Stock Market Trend Prediction. In: Neural Networks (IJCNN), pp. 1–7. IEEE Press, New York (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Bradić-Martinović, A.: Stock market prediction using technical analysis. Economic Anal. 170, 15–145 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  21. Lahmiri, S.: A Comparison of PNN and SVM for Stock Market Trend Prediction using Economic and Technical Information. International Journal of Computer Applications 29, 24–30 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Ni, L.-P., Ni, Z.-W., Gao, Y.-Z.: Stock trend prediction based on fractal feature selection and support vector machine. Expert Systems with Applications 38, 5569–5576 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ivana Marković .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Marković, I., Stojanović, M., Božić, M., Stanković, J. (2015). Stock Market Trend Prediction Based on the LS-SVM Model Update Algorithm. In: Bogdanova, A., Gjorgjevikj, D. (eds) ICT Innovations 2014. ICT Innovations 2014. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 311. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09879-1_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09879-1_11

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-09878-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-09879-1

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics