Modelling and Simulation in Fluid Dynamics in Porous Media

Volume 28 of the series Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics pp 99-108


Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes

  • P. WangAffiliated withPacific Northwest National Laboratory Email author 
  • , D. M. TartakovskyAffiliated withDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California, San Diego
  • , A. M. TartakovskyAffiliated withPacific Northwest National Laboratory

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We consider the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in a lake with uncertain nutrients inflow. To quantify the impact of this uncertainty on predictions of the concentrations of various algae groups, we explore two alternative approaches based on the Fokker–Planck equation and PDF methods. Both approaches quantify predictive uncertainty by deriving deterministic equations for joint probability density functions of the algae concentrations. As an example, we study the impact of uncertain initial concentration and inflow–outflow ratio on the evolution of cyanobacteria (the blue-green algae).