Date: 21 Aug 2008

Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall

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Abstract

The insurance industryis interested in five-year predictions of the number of Atlantic hurricanes which will make landfall in the United States. Here we describe a suite of models developed by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. to make such predictions. These models represent a broad spectrum of view-points to be used as a basis for an expert elicitation.