Chapter

Hurricanes and Climate Change

pp 73-99

Date:

Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall

  • Stephen JewsonAffiliated withRisk Management Solutions
  • , Enrica BelloneAffiliated withRisk Management Solutions
  • , Thomas LaeppleAffiliated withRisk Management SolutionsAlfred-Wegener Institute
  • , Kechi NzeremAffiliated withRisk Management Solutions
  • , Shree KhareAffiliated withRisk Management Solutions
  • , Manuel LonfatAffiliated withRisk Management Solutions
  • , Adam O’ShayAffiliated withRisk Management Solutions
  • , Jeremy PenzerAffiliated withRisk Management SolutionsLondon School of Economics
  • , Katie CoughlinAffiliated withRisk Management Solutions

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Abstract

The insurance industryis interested in five-year predictions of the number of Atlantic hurricanes which will make landfall in the United States. Here we describe a suite of models developed by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. to make such predictions. These models represent a broad spectrum of view-points to be used as a basis for an expert elicitation.