The Prediction of Journey Times on Motorways Using Genetic Programming

  • Daniel Howard
  • Simon C. Roberts
Conference paper

DOI: 10.1007/3-540-46004-7_22

Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 2279)
Cite this paper as:
Howard D., Roberts S.C. (2002) The Prediction of Journey Times on Motorways Using Genetic Programming. In: Cagnoni S., Gottlieb J., Hart E., Middendorf M., Raidl G.R. (eds) Applications of Evolutionary Computing. EvoWorkshops 2002. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 2279. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

Abstract

Considered is the problem of reliably predicting motorway journey times for the purpose of providing accurate information to drivers. This proof of concept experiment investigates:(a) the practicalities of using a Genetic Programming (GP) method to model/forecast motorway journey times; and (b) different ways of obtaining a journey time predictor. Predictions are compared with known times and are also judged against a collection of naive prediction formulae. A journey time formula discovered by GP is analysed to determine its structure, demonstrating that GP can indeed discover compact formulae for different trafic situations and associated insights. GP’s felxibility allows it to self-determine the required level of modelling complexity.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • Daniel Howard
    • 1
  • Simon C. Roberts
    • 1
  1. 1.QinetiQ Software Evolution CentreMalvernUK

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