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Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments pp 495–522Cite as

Analogue Methods in Palaeolimnology

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Part of the book series: Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research ((DPER,volume 5))

Abstract

Analogue methods in palaeolimnology consist of the modern analogue technique (MAT) as a means of reconstructing quantitatively past environments from proxy stratigraphical biological data and analogue matching (AM) as a means of comparing fossil assemblages with modern assemblages to inform environmental conservation and restoration of degraded lakes. The mathematics of MAT are presented and problems of spatial autocorrelation on MAT’s performance statistics are reviewed.

Analogue matching using one or more proxies (e.g., diatoms, cladocerans) and the choice of appropriate dissimilarity measures are discussed. Various approaches to answering the question how many analogues (k) should be used for environmental reconstructions or to set restoration targets are discussed. These include choosing k to optimise some error function such as root mean squared error of prediction, finding ‘jumps’ in the dissimilarity values, examining the reference distributions of all the modern dissimilarities, Monte Carlo resampling, constructing Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and applying logistic regression analyses. The use of analogue matching as a tool to help evaluate palaeoenvironmental reconstructions is outlined. Suitable software and directions for future work are discussed.

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Acknowledgements

I am indebted to Viv Jones for providing The Round Loch of Glenhead sediment core data and age-depth estimates, and to Jack Williams and Konrad Gajewski for permission to use the North American Modern Pollen Database data in the analogue software package for R that was used for all the analyses illustrated in the text. Roger Flower, Steve Juggins, John Birks, Helen Bennion, and Rick Battarbee have, over the years, provided useful discussions and technical help that have improved my understanding of analogue methods and how best to explain the concepts. The writing of this chapter and the accompanying analogue software was conducted whilst participating in the European Union 6th Framework Integrated Project Euro-limpacs (GOCE-CT-2003-505540).

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  1. Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK

    Gavin L. Simpson

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  1. Gavin L. Simpson
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Correspondence to Gavin L. Simpson .

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  1. Allegaten 41, Bergen, 5007, Norway

    H. John B. Birks

  2. Dept. Geobiology, Lab. Palaeobotany and Palynology, University Utrecht, Budapestlaan 4, Utrecht, 3584 CD, Netherlands

    André F. Lotter

  3. , School of Geography,, Newcastle University, Daysh Building 14b, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, United Kingdom

    Steve Juggins

  4. Dept. Biology, Paleoecological Environmental, Queen's University, Kingston, K7L 3N6, Ontario, Canada

    John P. Smol

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Simpson, G.L. (2012). Analogue Methods in Palaeolimnology. In: Birks, H., Lotter, A., Juggins, S., Smol, J. (eds) Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments. Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research, vol 5. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2745-8_15

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