Book 2009

Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories


ISBN: 978-3-540-46388-7 (Print) 978-3-540-46389-4 (Online)

Table of contents (20 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xvi

  2. Introduction

    1. Chapter

      Pages 3-16

      Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals

  3. Four Key Variables: Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rates

    1. Chapter

      Pages 19-38

      Gross Domestic Product

    2. Chapter

      Pages 39-50

      The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X−M

    3. Chapter

      Pages 51-64


    4. Chapter

      Pages 65-90

      Inflation and Interest Rates

    5. Chapter

      Pages 91-100

      Extrapolative Forecasting

  4. A Recession Symptoms

    1. Chapter

      Pages 103-110

      Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries

    2. Chapter

      Pages 111-122

      Recession Comparison Charts

    3. Chapter

      Pages 123-135

      Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions?

  5. B Recession Stories

    1. Chapter

      Pages 139-153

      Idleness Stories

    2. Chapter

      Pages 155-171

      Cycle Stories

  6. C Recession Early Warning Signs

    1. Chapter

      Pages 175-202

      Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP

    2. Chapter

      Pages 203-216

      More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators

  7. D Recession Causes

    1. Chapter

      Pages 219-229

      The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data

    2. Chapter

      Pages 231-259

      In Search of Recession Causes

  8. Expansions: With and Without Spurts

    1. Chapter

      Pages 263-280

      The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts

  9. The Longer Run: Savings, Investment, Government Borrowing, Foreign Lending and Your Home

    1. Chapter

      Pages 283-297

      Savings and Investment

    2. Chapter

      Pages 299-312


    3. Chapter

      Pages 313-328

      The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge?

    4. Chapter

      Pages 329-353

      The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement?

  10. Back Matter

    Pages 355-359