Principles of Forecasting

A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners

Editors:

ISBN: 978-0-7923-7401-5 (Print) 978-0-306-47630-3 (Online)

Table of contents (32 chapters)

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  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xii

  2. Introduction

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 1-12

      Introduction

  3. Role Playing

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 13-14

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 15-30

      Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions

  4. Intentions

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 31-32

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      Pages 33-56

      Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data

  5. Expert Opinions

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 57-58

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 59-80

      Improving Judgment in Forecasting

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 81-106

      Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 107-123

      Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 125-144

      Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique

  6. Conjoint Analysis

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 145-146

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 147-167

      Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis

  7. Judgmental Bootstrapping

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 169-170

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 171-192

      Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting

  8. Analogies

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 193-194

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 195-213

      Forecasting Analogous Time Series

  9. Extrapolation

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 215-216

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      Pages 217-243

      Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 245-256

      Neural Networks for Time-Series Forecasting

  10. Rule-Based Forecasting

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 257-258

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 259-282

      Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

  11. Expert Systems

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 283-283

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 285-300

      Expert Systems for Forecasting

  12. Econometric Methods

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 301-302

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 303-362

      Econometric Forecasting

  13. Selecting Methods

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 363-363

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 365-386

      Selecting Forecasting Methods

  14. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 387-388

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 389-403

      Judgmental Time-Series Forecasting Using Domain Knowledge

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 405-416

      Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 417-439

      Combining Forecasts

  15. Evaluating Methods

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 441-441

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      Book Chapter

      Pages 443-472

      Evaluating Forecasting Methods

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