Intuitivet tests: Lay use of statistical information
Normatively, a statistical pairwise comparison is a function of the mean, standard deviation (SD), and sample size of the data. In our experiment, 203 undergraduates compared product pairs and judged their confidence that one product was better than the other. We experimentally manipulated (within subjects) the average product ratings, the number of raters (sample size), and theSD of the ratings. Each factor had two levels selected, so that the same change in statistical power resulted from moving from the low to the high level. We also manipulated (between subjects) whether subjects were given only the product rating data as summarized in a statistical format or the summaries plus the raw ratings. Subjects gave the most weight to mean product ratings, less weight to sample size, and very little weight toSD. Providing subjects with raw data did not increase their use of sample size andSD, as predicted.
- Frederick, S. (2005). Cognitive reflection and decision making.Journal of Economic Perspectives,19, 25–42. CrossRef
- Gallistel, C. R., &Gelman, R. (2005). Mathematical cognition. In K. Holyoak & R. Morrison (Eds.),The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning (pp. 559–588). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Gigerenzer, G. (2000).Adaptive thinking: Rationality in the real world. New York: Oxford University Press.
- Gigerenzer, G., &Edwards, A. (2003). Simple tools for understanding risks: From innumeracy to insight.British Medical Journal,327, 741–744. CrossRef
- Gigerenzer, G., &Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats.Psychological Review,102, 684–704. CrossRef
- Glover, S., &Dixon, P. (2004). Likelihood ratios: A simple and flexible statistic for empirical psychologists.Psychonomic Bulletin & Review,11, 791–806. CrossRef
- Gottlieb, D., Weiss, T., &Chapman, G. B. (2007). The format in which uncertainty information is presented affects decision biases.Psychological Science,18, 240–246. CrossRef
- Hartnett, P. M., &Gelman, R. (1998). Early understandings of numbers: Paths or barriers to the construction of new understandings?Learning & Instruction,8, 341–374. CrossRef
- Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E., &Erev, I. (2004). Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice.Psychological Science,15, 534–539. CrossRef
- Hertwig, R., &Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The “conjunction fallacy” revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,12, 275–305. CrossRef
- Hoffrage, U., &Gigerenzer, G. (1998). Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences.Academic Medicine,73, 538–540. CrossRef
- Hoffrage, U., Lindsey, S., Hertwig, R., &Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Communicating statistical information.Science,290, 2261–2262. CrossRef
- Kahneman, D., &Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness.Cognitive Psychology,3, 430–454. CrossRef
- Lenth, R. V. (2006). Java applets for power and sample size [Computer software]. Retrieved January 2006 from www.stat.uiowa. edu/≈rlenth/Power.
- Nisbett, R. E., Krantz, D. H., Jepson, C., &Kunda, Z. (1983). The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.Psychological Review,90, 339–363. CrossRef
- Obrecht, N. A., & Chapman, G. B. (2006, November).Intuitive t tests: Lay use of statistical information. Poster session presented at the Psychonomic Society Annual Meeting, Houston, TX.
- Obrecht, N. A., Chapman, G. B., & Gelman, R. (2006, November).Statistical reasoning is influenced by serial presentation of information. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, Houston.
- Sedlmeier, P., &Gigerenzer, G. (1997). Intuitions about sample size: The empirical law of large numbers.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,10, 33–51. CrossRef
- Sedlmeier, P., &Gigerenzer, G. (2001). Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours.Journal of Experimental Psychology,130, 380–400.
- Tversky, A., &Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.Science,185, 1124–1131. CrossRef
- Intuitivet tests: Lay use of statistical information
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
Volume 14, Issue 6 , pp 1147-1152
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Additional Links