Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics

, Volume 71, Issue 7, pp 1018-1020

First online:

On the possible contribution of solar-cosmic factors to the global warming of XX century

  • M. G. OgurtsovAffiliated withIoffe Physicotechnical Institute, Russian Academy of SciencesCentral Astronomical Observatory at Pulkovo, Russian Academy of Sciences

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The effect of changes in the total solar irradiance and intensity of galactic cosmic rays on the increase in the global temperature of the Earth over the last 120 years was investigated using a one-dimensional energy-balance climate model. It is shown that the joint effect of solar and cosmic factors during this periodcan lead to an increase in the average temperature of the northern hemisphere by 0.25–0.35°C. It is concluded that the solar luminosity and the cosmic-ray flux can make a significant contribution to the global warming of the last century.