, Volume 34, Issue 1, pp 49–66

A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs

Economic Consequences of Aging for Populations and Individuals

DOI: 10.2307/2061659

Cite this article as:
Fogel, R.W. & Costa, D.L. Demography (1997) 34: 49. doi:10.2307/2061659


We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs.

Copyright information

© Population Association of America 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Bureau of Economic ResearchUniversity of ChicagoChicago
  2. 2.National Bureau of Economic ResearchMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusettsUSA