Mortality, Morbidity, and Aging

Demography

, Volume 26, Issue 4, pp 645-660

First online:

Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach

  • Robert McNownAffiliated withPopulation Program, University of Colorado
  • , Andrei RogersAffiliated withPopulation Program, University of Colorado

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Abstract

This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of changes in long-run mortality patterns. This pilot study demonstrates that the proposed procedure produces medium-range forecasts of mortality that meet the standard tests of accuracy in forecast evaluation and that are sensible when evaluated against the comparable forecasts produced by the Social Security Administration.