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Longrange trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
 John Bongaarts
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In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in agespecific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used LeeCarter procedure.
This research was supported by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Paul Hewett provided valuable research assistance. An earlier version of this article was presented in the Session on Mathematical Demography at the 2004 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 13, Boston. Thomas Buettner, Patrick Gerland, Griffith Feeney, Francois Pelletier, John Wilmoth, and two anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments on an early draft.
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 Title
 Longrange trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
 Journal

Demography
Volume 42, Issue 1 , pp 2349
 Cover Date
 20050201
 DOI
 10.1353/dem.2005.0003
 Print ISSN
 00703370
 Online ISSN
 15337790
 Publisher
 SpringerVerlag
 Additional Links
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 Authors

 John Bongaarts ^{(1)}
 Author Affiliations

 1. Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, 10017, New York, NY