Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
- John Bongaarts
- … show all 1 hide
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.
- Beard, R.E. 1971. “Some Aspects of Theories of Mortality, Cause of Death Analysis, Forecasting and Stochastic Processes.” Pp. 57–68 in Biological Aspects of Demography, edited by W. Brass. New York: Barnes & Noble.
- Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. 2002. “How Long Do We Live?” Population and Development Review 28(1):13–29. CrossRef
- —. 2003. “Estimating Mean Lifetime.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US 100(23):13127–33. CrossRef
- Booth, H., J. Maindonald, and L. Smith. 2002. “Applying Lee-Carter Under Conditions of Variable Mortality Decline.” Population Studies 56:325–36. CrossRef
- Carter, R. and A. Prskawetz. 2001. “Examining Structural Shifts in Mortality Using the Lee-Carter Method.” Working Paper 2001-007. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany.
- Gavrilov, L.A. and N.S. Gavrilova. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach, edited by V.P. Skulachev. Chur, Switzerland: Harwood Academic.
- Gompertz, B. 1825. “On the Nature of the Function Expressive of the Law of Mortality.” Philosophical Transactions 27:513–85. CrossRef
- Himes, C.L., S.H. Preston, and G.A. Condran. 1994. “A Relational Model of Mortality at Older Ages in Low Mortality Countries.” Population Studies 48:269–91. CrossRef
- Hollman, F.W., T.J. Mulder, and J.E. Kallan. 2000. “Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100.” Working Paper 38. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC.
- Horiuchi, S. and A.J. Coale. 1990. “Age Patterns of Mortality for Older Women: An Analysis Using the Age-Specific Rate of Mortality Change With Age.” Mathematical Population Studies 2:245–67. CrossRef
- Horiuchi, S. and J.R. Wilmoth. 1998. “Deceleration in the Age Pattern of Mortality at Older Ages.” Demography 35:391–412. CrossRef
- Kannisto, V. 1996. The Advancing Frontier of Survival: Life Tables for Old Age. Odense, Denmark: Odense University Press.
- Keyfitz, N. 1977. Applied Mathematical Demography. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
- —. 1984. “Choice of Function for Mortality Analysis: Effective Forecasting Depends on a Minimum Parameter Representation.” Pp. 225–43 in Methodologies for the Collection and Analysis of Mortality Data, edited by J. Vallin, J.H. Pollard, and L. Heligman. Liege, Belgium: Ordina Editions.
- —. 1991. “Experiments in the Projection of Mortality.” Canadian Studies in Population 18(2):1–17.
- Lee, R. 1998. “Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting.” In Frontiers of Population Forecasting, edited by W. Lutz, J.W. Vaupel, and D.A. Ahlburg. Supplement to Population and Development Review 24:156–90.
- —. 2000. “The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, With Various Extensions and Applications.” North American Actuarial Journal 4(1):80–93.
- Lee, R.D. and L.R. Carter. 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419):659–71. CrossRef
- Lee, R. and T. Miller. 2001. “Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality.” Demography 38:537–49. CrossRef
- Makeham, W. 1860. “On the Law of Mortality and the Construction of Annuity Tables.” Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 13:325–58.
- McNown, R. 1992. “Comment” on Lee, Ronald D. and Lawrence R. Carter, “Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419):659–72. CrossRef
- Olshansky, S.J. 1988. “On Forecasting Mortality.” Milbank Quarterly 66:482–530. CrossRef
- Perks, W. 1932. “On Some Experiments in the Graduation of Mortality Statistics.” Journal of the Institute of Actuaries 63:12–57.
- Pollard, J.H. 1987. “Projection of Age-Specific Mortality Rates.” Pp. 55–69 in Population Bulletin of the United Nations. Nos. 21–22. New York: United Nations.
- Tabeau, E., A. Jeths, and C. Heathcote. 2001. Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic.
- Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods. 1999. Report to the Social Security Advisory Board. Available on-line at http://www.ssab.gov/Rpt99.pdf
- Thatcher, A.R. 1999. “The Long-Term Pattern of Adult Mortality and the Highest Attained Age.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 162 Part 1:5–43. CrossRef
- Thatcher, A.R., V. Kannisto, and J.W. Vaupel. 1998. The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120. Odense, Denmark: Odense University Press.
- Tuljapurkar, S., N. Li, and C. Boe. 2000. “A Universal Pattern of Mortality Decline in the G7 Countries.” Letter. Nature 405:789–92. CrossRef
- Vaupel, J.W. 1986. “How Change in Age-Specific Mortality Affects Life Expectancy.” Population Studies 40(1):147–57. CrossRef
- Vaupel, J.W. and V.C. Romo. 2003. “Decomposing Change in Life Expectancy: A Bouquet of Formulas in Honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th Birthday.” Demography 40:201–16. CrossRef
- United Nations. 2002. World Population Prospects 2002. New York: United Nations.
- —. 2003. Long-Range Population Projections: Proceedings of the United Nations Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections. New York: United Nations Population Division. Available on-line at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange_working-paper_final.PDF
- Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
Volume 42, Issue 1 , pp 23-49
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Additional Links
- John Bongaarts (1)
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, 10017, New York, NY