Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC tended to underproject gains, but by less than did Social Security. True e0 was within the ex ante 95% probability interval 97% of the time overall, but intervals were too broad up to 40 years and too narrow after 50 years. Projections to 1998 made after 1945 always contain errors of less than two years. Hypothetical projections for France, Sweden, Japan, and Canada would have done well. Changing age patterns of mortality decline over the century pose problems for the method.
- Alho, J.M. 1990. “Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting 6:521–30. CrossRef
- —. 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality.” Journal of American Statistical Association 87:673–74. CrossRef
- Bell, W.R. 1997. “Comparing and Assessing Time Series Methods for Forecasting Age Specific Demographic Rates.” Journal of Official Statistics 13:279–303.
- Bell, W.R. and B.C. Monsell. 1991. “Using Principal Components in Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of Age-Specific Mortality Rates.” Pp. 154–59 in Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association.
- Carter, L. 1996a. “Long-Run Relationships in Differential U.S. Mortality Forecasts by Race and Gender: Non-Cointegrated Time Series Comparisons.” Presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, May 9, New Orleans.
- —. 1996b. “Forecasting U.S. Mortality: A Comparison of Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Structural Time Series Models.” Sociological Quarterly 37:127–44. CrossRef
- Carter, L. and R.D. Lee. 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality: Differentials in Life Expectancy by Sex.” International Journal of Forecasting 8(3):393–412. CrossRef
- Gomez de Leon, J. 1990. “Empirical DEA Models to Fit and Project Time Series of Age-Specific Mortality Rates.” Central Bureau of Statistics, Oslo, Norway. Unpublished manuscript.
- Hollmann, F.W., T.J. Mulder, and J.E. Kallan. 2000. “Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100.” Working Paper 38, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census.
- Horiuchi, S. and J.R. Wilmoth. 1995. “The Aging of Mortality Decline.” Presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, April 6, San Francisco.
- Kannisto, V., J. Lauristsen, A.R. Thatcher, and J.W. Vaupel. 1994. “Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages: Several Decades of Evidence From 27 Countries.” Population and Development Review 20:793–810. CrossRef
- Keilman, N. 1997. “Ex-Post Errors in Official Population Forecasts in Industrialized Countries.” Journal of Official Statistics (Statistics Sweden) 13:245–77.
- —. 1998. “How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections?” Population and Development Review 24:15–41. CrossRef
- Lee, R.D. 2000. “The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, With Various Extensions and Applications.” North American Actuarial Journal 4:80–91.
- Lee, R.D. and L. Carter. 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87:659–71. CrossRef
- Lee, R.D. and F. Nault. 1993. “Modeling and Forecasting Provincial Mortality in Canada.” Presented at the World Congress of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, August 24–September 1, Montreal.
- Lee, R.D. and R. Rofman. 1994. “Modelación y Proyección de la Mortalidad en Chile” (Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Chile). NOTAS 22:182–213.
- McNown, R. and A. Rogers. 1989. “Forecasting Mortality: A Parametrized Time Series Approach.” Demography 26:645–60. CrossRef
- National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population, edited by J. Bongaarts and R.A. Bulatao. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
- National Resource Planning Board. 1943. Estimates of the Future Population of the United States, 1940–2000. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
- National Resources Committee. 1937. Population Statistics: Material Prepared for a Study of Population Problems. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
- Tuljapurkar, S. and N. Li. 2000. “Mortality Change: The Structure of Short-Term Variability.” Presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, March 23–25, Los Angeles.
- Tuljapurkar, S., N. Li, and C. Boe. 2000. “A Universal Pattern of Mortality Decline in the G-7 Countries.” Nature 405:789–92. CrossRef
- Wilmoth, J.R. 1993. “Computational Methods for Fitting and Extrapolating the Lee-Carter Model of Mortality Change.” Technical report, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley.
- —. 1998. “Is the Pace of Japanese Mortality Decline Converging Toward International Trends?” Population and Development Review 24:593–600. CrossRef
- Wilmoth, J.R., J. Vallin, and G. Caselli. 1990. “When Does a Cohort’s Mortality Differ From What We Might Expect?” Population: English Selection 2:93–126.
- Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality
Volume 38, Issue 4 , pp 537-549
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors