Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations
- Juha M. Alho
- … show all 1 hide
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging. In this article, I introduce a stable, open-population model in which cohort net migration is proportional to births. In this case, the migration-fertility trade-off can be studied with particular ease. I show that although migration can increase the growth rate, which tends to make the age distribution younger, it also has an opposite effect because of its typical age pattern. I capture the effect of the age pattern of net migration in a migration-survivor function. The effect of net migration on growth is quantified with data from 17 European countries. I show that some countries already have a level of migration that will lead to stationarity. For other countries with asymptotically declining population, migration still provides opportunities for slowing down aging of the population as a whole.
- Bacaër, N. 2003. “The Asymptotic Behavior of the McKendrick Equation With Immigration.” Mathematical Population Studies 10:1–20. CrossRef
- Espenshade, T.J., L.F. Bouvier, and B.W. Arthur. 1982. “Immigration and the Stable Population Theory.” Demography 19:125–33. CrossRef
- ostat 2004. Population Statistics. Theme 3: Population and Social Conditions. Luxembourg: European Commission.
- Friedman, A. 1982. Foundations of Modern Analysis. New York: Dover.
- Kannisto, V. and M. Nieminen. 1996. “Revised Life Tables for Finland 1881–1990.” SVT Population 1996:2. Helsinki, Statistics Finland.
- Keyfitz, N. 1977. Introduction to the Mathematics of Population, With Revisions. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
- Liao, T.F. 2001. “How Responsive is U.S. Population Growth to Immigration? A Situational Sensitivity Analysis.” Mathematical Population Studies 9:217–29. CrossRef
- Mitra, S. 1983. “Generalization of the Immigration and Stable Population Model.” Demography 20:111–15. CrossRef
- — 1990“Immigration, Below-Replacement Fertility, and Long-Term National Population Trends.” Demography 27:121–29. CrossRef
- Oeppen, J. and J.W. Vaupel. 2002. “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy.” Science 296:1029–31. CrossRef
- Pollard, J.H. 1966. “On the Use of the Direct Matrix Product in Certain Population Mathematics.” Biometrika 53:397–415.
- Poulain, M. 1993. “Confrontation des statistiques de migrations intra-Européennes: vers plus d’harmonisation?” [Confronting migration statistics from different European countries: A way toward more harmonization?] European Journal of Population 9:353–81. CrossRef
- Rogers, A. 1995. Multiregional Demography. Principles, Methods and Extensions. New York: Wiley.
- Schmertmann, C. 1992. “Immigrants’ Ages and the Structure of Stationary Populations With Below-Replacement Fertility.” Demography 29:595–612. CrossRef
- Schmidbauer, H. and A. Rösch. 1995. “Population With Constant Immigration.” Mathematical Population Studies 5:341–58. CrossRef
- Shryock, H.S. and J.S. Siegel, and Associates. 1976. Methods and Materials of Demography, condensed edition by E.G. Stockwell. New York: Academic Press.
- United Nations, Population Division. 2000. Replacement Migration. New York: United Nations.
- Wu, Z. and N. Li 2003. “Immigration and the Dependency Ratio of a Host Population.” Mathematical Population Studies 10:21–39. CrossRef
- Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations
Volume 45, Issue 3 , pp 641-650
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors
- Juha M. Alho (1)
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Department of Statistics, University of Joensuu, P.O. Box 111, 80101, Joensuu, Finland