Development of dynamical weather-disease models to project and forecast malaria in Africa
Weather and climate play an important role in the spread of malaria. Suitable weather conditions for malaria are found in sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the worldwide malaria cases and deaths are found. For this reason, integrated weather-disease malaria models are useful tools to project the malaria future and to provide monthly-to-seasonal forecasts.
Malaria projections and forecasts are undertaken by two dynamical mathematical-biological malaria models: (i) the LMM (Liverpool Malaria Model) [1–3] and (ii) VECTRI (VECtor-borne disease community model of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, TRIeste). Both models are driven by daily temperature and precipitation values. An improved version of the LMM was introduced by , which was calibrated by malaria field observations from West Africa . Regarding the assessment of the impact of climate change on malaria , the LMM was driven by data from the REgional MOdel (REMO) including the effect of land su ...
- Hoshen MB, Morse AP: A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malar J 2004, 3:32. CrossRef
- Ermert V, Fink AH, Jones AE, Morse AP: Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. I. Refining the parameter settings and mathematical formulation of basic processes based on a literature review. Malar J 2011, 10:35. CrossRef
- Ermert V, Fink AH, Jones AE, Morse AP: Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. II. Calibration and validation for West Africa. Malar J 2011, 10:62. CrossRef
- Ermert V, Fink AH, Morse AP, Paeth H: The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Malaria Risk due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Africa. EHP 2012, 120:77–84.
- Development of dynamical weather-disease models to project and forecast malaria in Africa
- Open Access
- Available under Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.
- Online Date
- November 2012
- Online ISSN
- BioMed Central
- Additional Links
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
- 2. School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- 3. Institute of Geography, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
- 4. European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
- 5. Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy