, 11:P133,
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Date: 09 Nov 2012

Development of dynamical weather-disease models to project and forecast malaria in Africa

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Background

Weather and climate play an important role in the spread of malaria. Suitable weather conditions for malaria are found in sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the worldwide malaria cases and deaths are found. For this reason, integrated weather-disease malaria models are useful tools to project the malaria future and to provide monthly-to-seasonal forecasts.

Methods

Malaria projections and forecasts are undertaken by two dynamical mathematical-biological malaria models: (i) the LMM (Liverpool Malaria Model) [13] and (ii) VECTRI (VECtor-borne disease community model of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, TRIeste). Both models are driven by daily temperature and precipitation values. An improved version of the LMM was introduced by [2], which was calibrated by malaria field observations from West Africa [3]. Regarding the assessment of the impact of climate change on malaria [4], the LMM was driven by data from the REgional MOdel (REMO) including the effect of land su