, Volume 47, Issue 2, pp 137-148

Estimation of the effect of solar activity on the intensity of galactic cosmic rays

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Abstract

The observations of solar activity (average monthly values of the international sunspot numbers and areas, solar radioemission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity (average monthly values of the count rate of an omnidirectional Geiger counter at a maximum of the transition curve in the regions of Moscow and Murmansk and differences between these values) have been studied. The main aim of the studies was to assess the possibility of using the series of GCR values as an additional type of instrumental observations to predict solar activity. The results of an analysis made it possible to assess the degree of interrelation between the studied time series and, thereby, to confirm that GCRs, together with the characteristics of sunspot formation and solar radioemission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, can be used to predict solar activity. The development of the current solar cycle has been predicted. It is assumed that the duration of this cycle will exceed the average value.

Original Russian Text © V.I. Kaftan, M.B. Krainev, 2007, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2007, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 147–159.