Skip to main content
Log in

Potential Based Clouds in Robust Design Optimization

  • Published:
Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Robust design optimization methods applied to real life problems face some major difficulties: how to deal with the estimation of probability densities when data are sparse, how to cope with high dimensional problems and how to use valuable information in the form of unformalized expert knowledge. In this paper we introduce in detail the clouds formalism as a means to process available uncertainty information reliably, even if limited in amount and possibly lacking a formal description. This enables a worst-case analysis with confidence regions of relevant scenarios which can be involved in an optimization problem formulation for robust design.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexandrov, N.M., Hussaini, M.Y., 1997. Multidisciplinary design optimization: State of the art. In Proceedings of the ICASE/NASA Langley Workshop on Multidisciplinary Design Optimization.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Berleant, D., Cheng, H., 1998. A software tool for automatically verified operations on intervals and probability distributions. Reliable Computing, 4(1), 71–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Destercke, S., Dubois, D., Chojnacki, E., 2007. Relating practical representations of imprecise probabilities. In Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Prague, Czech Republic.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Dubois, D., Prade, H., 1986. Possibility Theory: An Approach to Computerized Processing of Uncertainty. New York: Plenum Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dubois, D., Prade, H., 2005. Interval-valued fuzzy sets, possibility theory and imprecise probability. In Proceedings of International Conference in Fuzzy Logic and Technology.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferson, S., 1996. What monte carlo methods cannot do? Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2, 990–1007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferson, S., 2002. Ramas Risk Calc 4.0 Software: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers. Lewis Publishers, U.S.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuchs, M., Girimonte, D., Izzo, D., Neumaier, A., 2008. Robust Intelligent Systems, chapter Robust and Automated Space System Design, in press. Springer. Preprint available on-line at: http://www.martin-fuchs.net/publications.php.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grant, M.C., Boyd, S.P., 2007. CVX: A system for disciplined convex programming. http://www.stanford.edu/~boyd/cvx/cvx_usrguide.pdf, http://www.stanford.edu/~boyd/cvx/

    Google Scholar 

  • Koch, P.N., Simpson, T.W., Allen, J.K., Mistree, F., 1999. Statistical approximations for multidisciplinary optimization: The problem of size. Special Issue on Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of Journal of Aircraft, 36(1), 275–286.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kolmogoroff, A., 1941. Confidence limits for an unknown distribution function. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 12(4), 461–463.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Kreinovich, V., 1997. Random Sets: Theory and Applications, chapter Random sets unify, explain, and aid known uncertainty methods in expert systems, 321–345. Springer-Verlag.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, K., Mistree, F., 1997. Modeling interactions in multidisciplinary design: A game theoretic approach. AIAA Journal, 35(8), 1387–1392.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCormick, D.J., Olds, J.R., 2002. A distributed framework for probabilistic analysis. In AIAA/ISSMO Symposium On Multidisciplinary Analysis And Design Optimization.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKay, M., Conover, W., Beckman, R., 1979. A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics, 221, 239–245.

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Neumaier, A., 2004. Clouds, fuzzy sets and probability intervals. Reliable Computing 10, 249–272. http://www.mat.univie.ac.at/~neum/ms/cloud.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  • Neumaier, A., Fuchs, M., Dolejsi, E., Csendes, T., Dombi, J., Banhelyi, B., Gera, Z., 2007. Application of clouds for modeling uncertainties in robust space system design. ACT Ariadna Research ACT-RPT-05-5201, European Space Agency. Available on-line at http://www.esa.int/gsp/ACT/ariadna/completed.htm

    Google Scholar 

  • Oberguggenberger, M., King, J., Schmelzer, B., 2007. Imprecise probability methods for sensitivity analysis in engineering. In Proceedings of 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Prague, Czech Republic.

    Google Scholar 

  • Press, W.H., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, W.T., Flannery, B.P., 1992. Numerical recipes in C. Cambridge University Press, 2nd edition.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Regan, H., Ferson, S., Berleant, D., 2004. Equivalence of methods for uncertainty propagation of real-valued random variables. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 36(1), 1–30.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Ross, T.J., 1995. Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications. New York, McGraw-Hill.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Williamson, R.C., 1989. Probabilistic Arithmetic. Ph.D. thesis, University of Queensland.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martin Fuchs.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fuchs, M., Neumaier, A. Potential Based Clouds in Robust Design Optimization. J Stat Theory Pract 3, 225–238 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2009.10411922

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2009.10411922

AMS Subject Classification

Key-words

Navigation