IMF Economic Review

, Volume 60, Issue 2, pp 155–192

Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium

  • Authors
  • Hyun Song Shin
Original Article

DOI: 10.1057/imfer.2012.6

Cite this article as:
Shin, H. IMF Econ Rev (2012) 60: 155. doi:10.1057/imfer.2012.6


European global banks intermediating U.S. dollar funds are important in influencing credit conditions in the United States. U.S. dollar-denominated assets of banks outside the United States are comparable in size to the total assets of the U.S. commercial bank sector, but the large gross cross-border positions are masked by the netting out of the gross assets and liabilities. As a consequence, current account imbalances do not reflect the influence of gross capital flows on U.S. financial conditions. This paper pieces together evidence from a global flow of funds analysis, and develops a theoretical model linking global banks and U.S. loan risk premiums. The culprit for the easy credit conditions in the United States up to 2007 may have been the “Global Banking Glut” rather than the “Global Savings Glut.”



Copyright information

© International Monetary Fund 2012