Skip to main content
Log in

Growth dynamics of German university enrolments and of scientific disciplines in the 19th century: Scaling behaviour under weak competitive pressure

  • Published:
Scientometrics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

According to authors like H. E. Stanley and others, growth dynamics of university research displays a quantitative behaviour similar to the growth dynamics of firms acting under competitive pressure. Features of such behaviour are probability distributions of annual growth rates or the standard deviation of growth rates. We show that a similar statistical behaviour can be observed in the growth dynamics of German university enrolments or in the growth dynamics of physics and mathematics, both for the 19th century. Since competitive pressure was generally weak at that time, interpretations of statistical similarities as to pointing to a “firm-like behaviour” are questionable.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amaral, L. A. N., Gopikrishnan, P., Matia, K., Plerou, V., Stanley, H. E. (2001), Application of statistical physics methods and concepts to the study of science & technology systems. Scientometrics, 51: 9-36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goffman, W., Harmon, G. (1971), Mathematical approach to the prediction of scientific discovery. Nature, 229: 103-104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, Y., Amaral, L. A. N., Canning, D., Meyer, M., Stanley, H. E. (1998), Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations. Physical Review Letters, 81(15): 3275-3278.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moed, H. F., Luwel, M. (1999), The business of research. Nature, 400: 411-412.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MÜller-Benedict, V. (1991). Akademikerprognosen und die Dynamik des Hochschulsystems. Eine statistisch-historische Untersuchung. Frankfurt/M.: Campus-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Plerou, V., Amaral, L. A. N., Gopikrishnan, P., Meyer, M., Stanley, H. E. (1999), Similarities between the growth dynamics of university research and of competitive economic activities. Nature, 400: 433-437.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prahl, H.-W. (1978), Sozialgeschichte des Hochschulwesens. München: Kösel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Puig, P., Stephens, M. A. (2000), Tests of fit for the Laplace distribution, with applications. Technometrics, 42: 417-423.

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Stanley, M. H. R., Amaral, L. A. N., Buldyrev, S. V., Havlin, S., Leschhorn, H., Maass, P., Salinger, M. A., Stanley, H. E. (1996), Scaling behaviour in the growth of companies. Nature, 379: 804-806.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sutton, J. (2002), The variance of firm growth rates: the 'scaling’ puzzle. Physica A, 312: 577-590.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Tabah, A. N. (1999), Literature dynamics: Studies on growth, diffusion, and epidemics. Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, 34: 249-286.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wagner-DÖbler, R. (1998), Scientometric evidence for the existence of long economic growth cycles in Europe 1500–1900. Scientometrics, 41: 201-208.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wagner-DÖbler, R. (1998a), Kognitive Mobilität. Eine makroskopische Untersuchung der Wanderung von Wissenschaftlern zwischen Forschungsgebieten am Beispiel der Mathematik. Journal for General Philosophy of Science, 29: 265-287. — Revised English version: Wagner-Döbler, R. (1999). Cognitive Mobility. In: P. S. NAGPAUL et al. (Eds), Emerging Trends in Scientometrics. Essays in honour of Ashok Jain (pp. 225–245). New Delhi: Allied Publishers. — 2nd ed. 2000.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wagner-DÖbler, R., Berg, J. (1996), Nineteenth-century mathematics in the mirror of its literature. A quantitative approach. Historia Mathematica, 23: 288-318.

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Wagner-DÖbler, R., Berg, J. (1999), Physics 1800–1900: A quantitative outline. Scientometrics, 46: 213-285.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Havemann, F., Heinz, M. & Wagner-Döbler, R. Growth dynamics of German university enrolments and of scientific disciplines in the 19th century: Scaling behaviour under weak competitive pressure. Scientometrics 60, 283–294 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:SCIE.0000034374.79769.ed

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:SCIE.0000034374.79769.ed

Keywords

Navigation