Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Tree Mortality in Gap Models: Application to Climate Change

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Gap models are perhaps the most widely used class of individual-based tree models used in ecology and climate change research. However, most gap model emphasize, in terms of process detail, computer code, and validation effort, tree growth with little attention to the simulation of plant death or mortality. Mortality algorithms have been mostly limited to general relationships because of sparse data on the causal mechanisms of mortality. If gap models are to be used to explore community dynamics under changing climates, the limitations and shortcomings of these mortality algorithms must be identified and the simulation of mortality must be improved. In this paper, we review the treatment of mortality in gap models, evaluate the relationships used to represent mortality in the current generation of gap models, and then assess the prospects for making improvements, especially for applications involving global climate change. Three needs are identified to improve mortality simulations in gap models: (1) process-based empirical analyses are needed to create more climate-sensitive stochastic mortality functions, (2) fundamental research is required to quantify the biophysical relationships between mortality and plant dynamics, and (3) extensive field data are needed to quantify, parameterize, and validate existing and future gap model mortality functions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aber, J. D., Botkin, D. B., and Melillo, J. M.: 1978, ‘Predicting the Effects of Different Harvesting Regimes on Forest Floor Dynamics in Northern Hardwoods,’, Can. J. Forest Res. 8, 306–315.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aber, J. D., Melillo, J. M., and Federer, C. A.: 1982, ‘Predicting the Effects of Rotation Length, Harvest Intensity, and Fertilization on Fiber Yield from Northern Hardwood Forests in New England,’, Forest Science 28(1), 31–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aber, J. D., Ollinger, S. V., and Driscoll, C. T.: 1997, ‘Modeling Nitrogen Saturation in Forest Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Atmospheric Deposition’, Ecol.Modelling 101, 61–78.

    Google Scholar 

  • Abrams, M. D.: 1994, ‘Genotypic and Phenotypic Variation as Stress Adaptations in Temperate Tree Species: A Review of Several Case Studies, Tree Physiology 14, 833–842.

    Google Scholar 

  • Albini, F. A. and Reinhardt, E. D.: 1995, ‘Modeling Ignition and Burning Rate of Large Woody Natural Fuels’, International Journal of Wildland Fire 5(2), 81–91.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker, W. L.: 1989, ‘Effect of Scale and Spatial Heterogeneity on Fire-Interval Distributions’, Can. J. Forest Res. 19, 700–706.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker, W. L., Egbert, S. L., and Frazier. G. F.: 1991, ‘A Spatial Model for Studying the Effects of Climatic Change on the Structure of Landscapes Subject to Large Disturbances’, Ecol.Modelling 56, 109–125.

    Google Scholar 

  • Battaglia, M. and Sands, P. J.: 1998, ‘Process-Based Forest Productivity Models and their Application to Forest Management’, Forest Ecology and Management 102, 13–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonan, G. B.: 1989, ‘A Computer Model of the Solar Radiation, Soil Moisture, and Soil Thermal Regimes in Boreal Forests’, Ecol. Modelling 45, 275–306.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bossel, H.: 1994, TREEDYN3 Forest Simulation Model: Mathematical Model, Program Documentation, and Simulation Results, Berichte des Forschungszentrums, Waldokosysteme, Reihe B, Bd. 35, p. 117.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bossel, H. and Schäfer. H.: 1989, ‘Generic SimulationModel of Forest Growth, Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics, and Application to Tropical Acacia and European Spruce, Ecol. Modelling 48, 221–265.

    Google Scholar 

  • Botkin, D. B. and Schenk, H. J.: 1996, Review and Analysis of JABOWA and Related Forest Models and their Use in Climate Change studies, NCASI Technical Bulletin Number 717, p. 62.

  • Botkin, Daniel B.: 1993, Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model, Oxford University Press, New York, p. 309.

    Google Scholar 

  • Botkin, D. B., Janak, J. F., and Wallis. J. R.: 1972, ‘Some Ecological Consequences of a Computer Model of Forest Growth, J. Ecol. 60, 849–872.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boyce, R. B.: 1985, Conifer Germination and Seedling Establishment on Burned and Unburned Seedbeds, University of Idaho, Thesis, Moscow, ID, p. 71.

  • Buchman, R. G.: 1983a, Survival Projections for Major Lake States Tree Species. USDA Forest Service, North Central Experiment Station Research Paper NC-233, p. 7.

  • Buchman, R. G.: 1983b, ‘A Tree Survival Model with Application to the Great Lakes Region, Can. J. Forest Res. 13(4), 601–608.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bugmann, H. K. M.: 1996, ‘A Simplified Forest Model to Study Species Composition along Climate Gradients’, Ecology 77(7), 2055–2074.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bugmann, H. K. M. and Solomon, A. M.: 2000, ‘Explaining Forest Composition and Biomass Across Multiple Biogeographical Regions’, Ecol. Appl. 10, 95–114.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burton, P. J. and Cumming, S. G.: 1995, ‘Potential Effects of Climatic Change on Some Western Canadian Forests, Based on Phenological Enhancements to a Patch Model of Forest Succession’, Water, Air and Soil Pollut. 82, 401–414.

    Google Scholar 

  • Busing, R. T. and Clebsch, E. E. C.: 1987, ‘Application of a Spruce-Fir Forest Canopy Gap Model, Forest Ecology and Management 20, 151–169.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, R. and Twilley, R. R.: 1998, ‘A Gap Dynamic Model of Mangrove Forest Development along Gradients of Soil Salinity and Nutrient Resources, J. Ecol. 86, 37–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clinton, B. D., Boring, L. R., and Swank, W. T.: 1993, ‘Canopy Gap Characteristics and Drought Influences in Oak Forests of the Coweeta Basin’, Ecology 74(5), 1551–1558.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coffin, D. P. and Lauenroth, W. K.: 1990, ‘A Gap Dynamics Simulation Model of Succession in the Shortgrass Steppe’, Ecol. Modelling 49, 229–266.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coffin, D. P. and Urban, D. L.: 1993, ‘Implications of Natural History Traits to System-Level Dynamics: Comparisons of a Grassland and a Forest’, Ecol. Modelling 67, 147–178.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crutzen, P. J. and Goldammer, J. G.: 1993, Fire in the Environment: The Ecological, Atmospheric and Climatic Importance of Vegetation Fires, John Wiley and Sons, New York, p. 456.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dahlman, R. C.: 1985, ‘Modeling Needs for Predicting Responses to CO2 Enrichment: Plants, Communities, and Ecosystems, Ecol. Modelling 29, 77–106.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dale, V. H. and Rauscher, H. M.: 1994, ‘Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling, Clim. Change 28, 65–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dale, V. H., Doyle, T. W., and Shugart, H. H.: 1985, ‘A Comparison of Tree Growth Models’, Ecol. Modelling 29, 145–169.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dale, V. H., Hemstrom, M., and Franklin, J.: 1986, ‘Modeling the Long-Term Effects of Disturbances on Forest Succession’, Olympic Peninsula, Washington, Can. J. Forest Res. 16, 56–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daniels, R. F., Leuschner, W. A., Zarnoch, S. J., Burkhart, H. E., Hicks, R. R.: 1979, ‘A Method for Estimating the Probability of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks’, Forest Science 2, 265–269.

    Google Scholar 

  • Desanker, P. V. and Prentice, I. C.: 1994, ‘MIOMBO – a Vegetation Dynamics Model for theMiombo Woodlands of Zambezian Africa, Forest Ecology and Management 69, 87–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Deutschman, D. H., Levin, S. A., and Pacala, S.W.: 1999, ‘Error Propagation in a Forest Succession Model: The Role of Fine-Scale Heterogeneity in Light, Ecology 80(6), 1927–1943.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doyle, T. W.: 1981, ‘The Role of Disturbance in Gap Dynamics of a Montane Rain Forest: An Application of a Tropical Forest Succession Model’, in West, D. C., Shugart, H. H., and Botkin, D. B. (eds.), Forest Succession: Concepts and Application, Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 56-73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Finney, M. A.: 1998, FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator – Model Development and Evaluation, USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-4, p. 47.

  • Flannigan, M. D. and van Wagner, C. E.: 1991, ‘Climate Change and Wildfire in Canada’, Can. J. Forest Res. 21, 66–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Franklin, J. F., Shugart, H. H., and Harmon, M. E.: 1987, ‘Tree Death as an Ecological Process’, BioScience 37(8), 550–556.

    Google Scholar 

  • Friend, A. D., Schugart, H. H., Running, S. W.: 1993, ‘A Physiology-Based Gap Model of Forest Dynamics’, Ecology 74(3), 792–797.

    Google Scholar 

  • Führer, E.: 1993, ‘Bemerkungen zur Epidemiologie rindenbrütender Insekten an Fichte’, FIW Forschungsberichte 1993 5, Österreichische Gesellschaft für Waldökosystemforschung und experimentelle Baumforschung.

  • Fulton, M. R.: 1991, ‘SimulationModeling of the Effects of Site Conditions and Disturbance History on Boreal Forest Landscape’, Journal of Vegetation Science 2, 603–612.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gardner, R. H., Hargrove, W. W., Turner, M. G., and Romme, W. H.: 1996, ‘Climate Change, Disturbances and Landscape Dynamics’, in Walker B. H. and Steffen, W. L. (eds.), Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems, (IGBP Book Series No. 2, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 149–172.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gertner, G.: 1990, ‘Error Budgets: A Means of Assessing Component Variability and Identifying Efficient Ways to Improve Model Predictive Ability, in Dixon, R. K., Meldahl, R. S., Ruark, G. A., and Warren, W. G. (eds.), Process Modeling of Gorest Growth Response to Environmental Stress Timber Press, Portland, OR, pp. 220–225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gill, M.: 1997, ‘Modelling Environmental and Temporal Niches of Eucalypts’, in Williams, J. E. and Woinarski, J. C. Z. (eds.), Eucalyptus Ecology: From Individuals to Ecosystems, Cambridge University Press, London, U.K., pp. 129–150.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glenn-Lewin, D. C. and van der Maarel, E.: 1992, ‘Patterns and Processes of Vegetation Dynamics’, in Glenn-Lewin, D. C., Peet, R. K., and Veblen, T. T. (eds.), Plant Succession: Theory and Prediction, Chapman and Hill, London, U.K., pp. 11–59.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, D. A.: 1986, ‘A Logistic Model of Mortality in Thinned and Unthinned Mixed Conifer Stands of Northern Idaho’, Forest Science 32(4), 989–1001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, D. A.: 1990, ‘Extending the Range of Applicability of an Individual Tree Mortality Model’, Can. J. Forest Res. 20, 1212–1218.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanninen, H.: 1995, ‘Effects of Climatic Change on Trees from Cool and Temperate Regions: An Ecophysiological Approach to Modelling of Bud Burst Phenology, Canadian’, Journal of Botany 73, 183–199.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harcombe, P. A.: 1987, ‘Tree Life Tables’, BioScience 37(8), 557–568.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hawkes, C.: 2000, ‘Woody Plant Mortality Algorithms: Description, Problems, and Progress’, Ecol. Modelling 126, 225–248.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hedden, R. L.: 1981, ‘Hazard Rating SystemDevelopment and Validation, An Overview’, in Hedden, R. L., Barras, S. J., Coster, J. E. (eds.), Hazard Rating Systems in Forest Insect Pest Management, Symposium Proceedings, Athens, Georgia, July 31–August 1, 1980. GTR-WO_27, USDA, Forest Service, pp. 9–12.

  • Host, G. E. and Isebrands, J. G.: 1994, ‘An Interregional Validation of ECOPHYS, a Growth Process Model of Juvenile Popular Clones’, Tree Physiology 14, 933–947.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hungerford, R. E.: 1990, ‘Modeling the Downward Heat Pulse from Fire in Soils and in Plant Tissue’, in MacIver, D. C., Auld, H., and Whitewood, R. (eds.), Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Fire and Forest Meterology, 1989, April 17–21, Ottawa, Ontario, Forestry Canada, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, Ontario, pp. 148–154.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huston, M. A.: 1991, ‘Use of Individual-Based Forest Succession Models to Link Physiological Whole-Tree Models to Landscape Scale Ecosystem Models’, Tree Physiology 9, 293–306.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jorritsma, I. T.M., van Hees, A. F.M., and Mohren, G. M. J.: 1999, ‘Forest Development in Relation to Ungulate Grazing’, Forest Ecology and Mangement 120, 23–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kasischke, E. S., Christensen, J. L., and Stocks, B. J.: 1995, ‘Fire, Global Warming, and the Carbon Balance of Boreal Forests’, Ecol. Appl. 5(2), 437–451.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaufmann, M. R.: 1990, ‘Ecophysiological Processes Affecting Tree Growth: Water Relationships’, in Dixon, R. K., Meldahl, R. S., Ruark, G. A., and Warren, W. G. (eds.), Process Modeling of Forest Growth Response to Environmental Stress, Timber Press, Portland, OR, pp. 64–81.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keane, R. E. and Long, D. G.: 1998, ‘A Comparison of Coarse Scale Fire Effects Simulation Strategies’, Northwest Science 72(2), 76–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keane, R. E., Arno, S. F., and Brown, J. K.: 1990, ‘Simulating Cumulative Fire Effects in Ponderosa Pine/Douglas-Fir Forests’, Ecology 71(1), 189–203.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keane, R. E., Morgan, P., Running, S. W.: 1996a, Fire-BGC – A Mechanistic Ecological Process Model for Simulating Fire Succession on Coniferous Forest Landscapes of the Northern Rocky Mountains, USDA Forest Service Research Paper INT-484, p. 122.

  • Keane, R. E., Ryan, K. C., Running, S. W.: 1996b, ‘Simulating Effects of Fire on Northern Rocky Mountain Landscapes with the Ecological Process Model Fire-BGC’, Tree Physiology 16, 319–331.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellomäki, S. and Kolström, M.: 1992, ‘Simulation of Tree Species Composition and OrganicMatter Accumulation in Finnish Boreal Forests under Changing Climate Conditions’, Vegetatio 102, 47–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kercher, J. R. and Axelrod, M. C.: 1984a, ‘A Process Model of Fire Ecology and Succession in a Mixed-Conifer Forest’, Ecology, 65(6), 1725–1742.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kercher, J. R. and Axelrod, M. C.: 1984b, ‘Analysis of SILVA: A Model for Forecasting the Effects of SO2 Pollution and Fire on Western Coniferous Forests’, Ecol. Modelling 23, 165–184.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kienast, F. and Kräuchi, N.: 1991, ‘Simulated Successional Characteristics of Managed and Unmanaged Low-Elevation Forests in Central Europe’, Forest Ecology and Management 42, 49–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimmins, J. P.: 1993, Scientific Foundations for the Simulation of Ecosystem Function and Management in FORCYTE-11, Inf. Report NOR-X-328, Forestry Canada, Morthwest Region, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, p. 88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimmins, J. P., Mailly, D., and Seely, B.: 1999, ‘Modelling Forest Ecosystem Net Primary Production: The Hybrid Simulation Approach Used in FORECAST’, Ecol. Modelling 122, 195–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kobe, R. K.: 1996, ‘Intraspecific Variation in Sapling Mortality and Growth Predicts Geographic Variation in Forest Composition’, Ecol. Monogr. 66(2), 181–201.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kobe, R. K. and Coates, D. K.: 1997, ‘Models of Sapling Mortality as a Function of Growth to Characterize Interspecific Variation in Shade Tolerance of Eight Tree Species of Northwestern British Columbia’, Can. J. Forest Res. 27, 227–236.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kobe, R. K., Pacala, S.W., Silander, J. A., and Canham, C. D.: 1995, ‘Juvenile Tree Survivorship as a Component of Shade Tolerance’, Ecol. Appl. 5(2), 517–532.

    Google Scholar 

  • Korol, R. L., Running, S. W., Milner, K. S., and Hunt, E. R.: 1991, ‘Testing a Mechanistic Carbon Balance Model against Observed Tree Growth’, Can. J. Forest Res. 21, 1098–1105.

    Google Scholar 

  • Korol, R. L, Running, S. W., and Milner, K. S.: 1995, ‘Incorporating Intertree Competition into an Ecosystem Model’, Can. J. Forest Res. 25, 413–424.

    Google Scholar 

  • Korzukhin, M. D., Ter-Mikaelian, M. T., and Wagner, R. G.: 1996, ‘Process versus Empirical Models: Which Approach for Forest Ecosystem Management’, Can. J. Forest Res. 26, 879–887.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krauchi, N. and Kienast. F.: 1993, ‘Modelling Subalpine Forest Dynamics as Influenced by a Changing Environment’, Water, Air, and Soil Pollut. 68, 185–197.

    Google Scholar 

  • Landsberg, J. J. and Gower. S. T.: 1997, Applications of Physiological Ecology to Forest Management, Academic Press, San Diego, California, p. 354.

    Google Scholar 

  • LeBlanc, D. C.: 1990, ‘Red Spruce Decline onWhiteface Mountain, New York. I. Relationships with Elevation, Tree Age, and Competition’, Can. J. Forest Res. 20, 1408–1414.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, Y. J.: 1971, ‘Predicting Mortality for Even-Aged Stands of Lodgepole Pine’, Forestry Chronicle 47, 29–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leemans, R.: 1992, ‘Simulation and Future Projection of Succession in a Swedish Broad-Leaved Forest’, Forest Ecology and Management 48, 305–319.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leemans, R. and Prentice, I.: 1989, FORSKA, A General Forest Succession Model, General Report 89/2, Institute of Ecological Botany, Uppsala, Sweden, p. 45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Levine, E. R., Ranson, K. J., Smith, J. A., Williams, D. L., Knox, R. G., Shugart, H. H., Urban, D. L., and Lawrence, W. T.: 1993, ‘Forest Ecosystem Dynamics; Linking Forest Succession, Soil Process and Radiation Models’, Ecol. Modelling 75, 199–219.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lexer, M. J.: 1998, ‘Model Development for Risk Rating Norway Spruce Stands for Bark Beetle Infestations under Changing Soil Moisture Conditions’, in Peter, D. Maracchi, G., Ghazi, A. (eds.), Climate Change Impact on Agriculture and Forestry, European Commission, EUR 18175.

  • Lexer, M. J. and Hönninger, K.: 1998, ‘Simulated Effects of Bark Beetle Infestations on Stand Dynamics in Picea Abies Stands: Coupling a Patch Model and a Stand Risk Model’, in Beniston, M., Innes, J. L. (eds.), The Impacts of Climate Variability on Forests. Lecture Notes In Earth Sciences 74, Springer Verlag, p. 329.

  • Li, C., Ter-Mikaelian, M., and Perera, A.: 1996, ‘Temporal Fire Disturbance Patterns on a Forest Landscape’, Ecol. Modelling 99 (2, 3), 137150.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lieth, H.: 1974, Phenology and seasonality modeling, Springer-Verlag, New York, U.S.A., p. 444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Loehle, C.: 1987, ‘Tree Life History Strategies: The Role of Defenses’, Can. J. Forest Res. 18, 209–222.

    Google Scholar 

  • Loehle, C.: 1996, ‘Forest Responses to Climate Change’, J. For. 72, 13–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Loehle, C. and LeBlanc, D.: 1996, ‘Model-Based Assessments of Climate Change Effects on Forests: A Critical Review’, Ecol. Modelling 90, 1–31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, Z. and Malanson. G. P.: 1992, ‘Long-Term Cyclic Dynamics of Simulated Riparian Forest Stands’, Forest Ecology and Management 48, 217–231.

    Google Scholar 

  • Makipaa, R. T. Karjalainen, Pussinen, A., and Kellomaki, S.: 1999, ‘Effects of Climate Change and Nitrogen Deposition on the Carbon Sequestration of a Forest Ecosystem in the Boreal Zone’, Can. J. Forest Res. 29, 1490–1501.

    Google Scholar 

  • Malanson, G. P., Westman, W. E., and Yeuh-lih, Y.: 1992, ‘Realized versus Fundamental Niche Functions in a Model of Chaparral Response to Climate Change’, Ecol. Modelling 64, 261–277.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manion, P. D.: 1979, ‘StemDecay Perspectives – An Introduction to the Mechanisms of Tree Defense and Decay Patterns’, Phytopathology 69(10), 1136–1138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manion, P. D.: 1981, ‘Norway Maple Decline’, Countryside 7(2), 38–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCune, B. and Henckel, L. C.: 1993, ‘Tree Mortality Rates for Two Contrasting Forests in Mammoth Cave National Park’, Natural Areas Journal 13(2), 115–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Michaels, P. J. and Hayden, B. P.: 1987, ‘Modeling the Climate Dynamics of Tree Death’, BioScience 37(8), 603–610.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mielke, D. L., Shugart, H. H., and West, D. C.: 1978, A Stand Model for Upland Forests of Southern Arkansas, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Publication number 1134. ORNL/TM-6225. Oak Ridge, TN, U.S.A., p. 56.

  • Miller, C. and Urban, D. L.: 1999, ‘A Model of Surface Fire, Climate, and Forest Pattern in the Sierra Nevada, California’, Ecol. Modelling 114, 113–135.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monserud, R. A.: 1976, ‘Simulation of Forest Tree Mortality’, Forest Science 22(3), 438–444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monserud, R. A.: 1975, Methodology for Simulating Wisconsin Northern Hardwood Stand Dynamics, Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Wisconsin, MA, U.S.A. p. 156.

    Google Scholar 

  • Monserud, R. A. and H. Serba. 1999, ‘Modeling individual tree mortality for Austrian tree species’, Forest Ecology and Management 113(2/3):109-123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Norby, R. J., Ogle, K., Curtis, P. S., Badeck, F.-W., Huth, A., Hurtt, G. C., Kohyama, T., and Peñuelas, J.: 2001, ‘Aboveground Growth and Competition in Forest Gap Models: An Analysis for Studies of Climatic Change’, Clim. Change 51, 415–447.

    Google Scholar 

  • O'Brien, S. T., Hayden, B. P., and Shugart, H. H.: 1992, ‘Global Change, Hurricanes and a Tropical Rain Forest’, Clim. Change 22, 175–190.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pacala, S. W., Canham, C. D., and Silander, J. A.: 1993, ‘Forest Models Defined by Feld Masurements: I. The Dsign of a Northeastern Forest Simulator’, Can. J. Forest Res. 23, 1980–1988.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pacala, S., Canham, C., Saponara, J., Silander, J., Kobe, R., and Ribbens E.: 1996, ‘Forest Models Defined by Field Measurements: II. Estimation, Error Analysis and Dynamics’, Ecol. Monogr. 66, 1–44.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pacala, S.W. and Hurtt, G. C.: 1993, ‘Terrestrial Vegetation and Climate Change: Integrating Models and Experiments’, in Kareiva, P. M., Kingsolver, J. G., and Huey, R. B. (eds), Biotic Interactions and Global Change, Sinauer Associates Inc. Sunderland, MA, U.S.A., pp.57–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pastor, J. and Post, W. M.: 1986, ‘Influence of Climate, Soil Moisture, and Succession on Forest Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles’, Biogeochemistry 2, 3–27.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pausas, J. G., Austin, M. P., and Noble, I. R.: 1997, ‘A Forest Simulation Model for Predicting Eucalypt Dynamics and Habitat Quality for Arboreal Marsupials’, Ecol. Appl. 7, 921–933.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearlstine, L., McKellar, M., and Kitchens, W.: 1985, ‘Modelling the Impacts of a River Diversion on Bottomland Forest Communities in the Santee River Flood Plain, South Carolina’, Ecol. Modelling 29, 283–302.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pedersen, B. S.: 1998a, ‘The Role of Stress in the Mortality of Midwestern Oaks as Indicated by Growth Prior to Death’, Ecology 79, 79–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pedersen, B. S.: 1998b, ‘Modeling Tree Mortality in Response to Short-and Long-Term Environmental Stresses’, Ecol. Modelling 105, 347–351.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peet, R. K. and Christensen, N. L.: 1987, ‘Competition and Tree Death’, BioScience 37(8), 586–595.

    Google Scholar 

  • Phipps, R. L.: 1979, 'simulation of Wetland Forest Vegetation Dynamics’, Ecol. Modelling 7, 257–288.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pigott, C. E.: 1981, ‘Nature of Seed Sterility and Natural Regeneration of Tilia cordata Near its Northern Limit in Finland’, Ann. Bot. Fenn. 18, 55–263.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pigott, C. E.: 1989, ‘Factors Controlling the Distribution of Tilia cordata at the Northern Limits of its Geographical Range. IV. Estimated Ages of the Trees’, New Phytol. 112, 1170–121.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pigott, C. E. and Huntley, J. P.: 1989, ‘Factors Controlling the Distribution of Tilia cordata at the Northern Limits of its Geographical Range. III. Nature and Causes of Seed Sterility’, New Phytol. 87, 817–839.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prentice, I. C., Sykes, M. T., Cramer, W.: 1993, ‘A Simulation Model for the Transient Effects of Climate Change on Forest Landscapes’, Ecol. Modelling 65, 51–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Price, C. and Rind, D.: 1994, ‘The Impact of a 2 × CO2 Climate on Lighning-Caused Fires’, J. Climate 7, 1484–1494.

    Google Scholar 

  • Price, D. T., Zimmerman, N. E., van der Meer, P. J., Lexer, M. J., Leadley, P., Jorritsma, I. T. M., Schaber, J., Clark, D. F., Lasch, P., McNulty, S., Wu, J., and Smith, B.: 2001, ‘Regeneration in Gap Models: Priority Issues for Studying Forest Responses to Climate Change’, Clim. Change 51, 475–508.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reed, K. L. and Clark. S. G.: 1979, SUCcession SIMulator: A Coniferous Forest Simulator. Model Documentation. Bulletin Number 11. Seattle: University of Washington, Coniferous Biome Ecosystem Analysis, p. 96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rehfeldt, G. E., Ying, C. C., Spittlehouse, D. L., and Hamilton, D. A.: 1999, ‘Genetic Responses to Climate in Pinus contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation’, Ecol. Monogr. 69(3), 375–407.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reinhardt, E. D., Keane, R. E., and Brown. J. K.: 1997, First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM 4.0, User's Guide, USDA Forest Service General Technical Report INT-GTR-344, p. 65.

  • Roberts, D. W.: 1997, ‘Landscape Vegetation Modelling with Vital Attributes and Fuzzy Systems Theory’, Ecol. Modelling 90, 175–184.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, K. C.: 1991, ‘Vegetation and Wildland Fire: Implications of Global Climate Change’, Environment International 17, 169–178.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, K. C.: 1996, Effects of Fire-Caused Defoliation and Basal Girdling on Water Relations and Growth of Ponderosa Pine, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, p. 80.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, K. C., Peterson, D. L., Reinhardt. E. D.: 1987, ‘Modeling Long-Term Fire-Caused Mortality of Douglas-Ffir’, Forest Science, 34(1), 190–199.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, K. C. and Reinhardt, E. D.: 1988, ‘Predicting Postfire Mortality of Seven Western Conifers’, Can. J. Forest Res. 18, 1291–1297.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scarascia-Mugnozza, G. E., Valentini, R., Ceulemans, R., and Isebrands, J. G.: 1994, ‘Ecophysiology and Genetics of Trees and Forests in a Changing Environment’, Special Issue of Tree Physiology 14(7–9), 6590-1008.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schenk, J. A., Mahoney, R. L., Moore, J. A., and Adams, D. L.: 1980, ‘A Model for Hazard Rating Lodgepole Pine Stands forMortality by Mountain Pine Beetle’, Forest Ecology and Management 3, 57–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwerdtfeger, F.: 1981, Die Waldkrankheiten, Verlag Paul Parey, Hamburg, Berlin, p. 486.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shao, G., Schall, P., and Weishampel, J. F.: 1994, ‘Dynamic Simulations of Mixed Broadleaved Pinus koraiensis Forests in the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve of China’, Forest Ecology and Management 70, 169–181.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharpe, P. J. H., Walker, J., Penridge, L. K., Wu, H., Rykiel, E. J.: 1986, ‘Spatial Considerations in Physiological Models of Tree Growth’,, Tree Physiology 2, 403–421.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shigo, A. L.: 1985, ‘Wounded Forests, Starving Trees’, J. For. 83, 668–673.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shugart, H. H.: 1998, Terrestrial Ecosystems in Changing Environments, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., p. 537.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shugart, H. H. and Noble, I. R.: 1981, ‘A Computer Model of Succession and Fire Response of the High-Altitude Eucalyptus Forest of the Brindabella Range, Australian Capital Territory, Australian Journal of Ecology 6, 149–164.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shugart H. H. and Seagle, S. W.: 1985, ‘Modeling Forest Landscapes and the Role of Disturbance in Ecosystems and Communities’, The Ecology of Natural Disturbance and Patch Dynamics, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, pp. 353-368.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shugart, H. H. and West, D. C.: 1980, ‘Forest Succession Models’, BioScience 30(5), 308–313.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shugart, H. H. and West, D. C.: 1977, ‘Development of an Appalachian Deciduous Forest Succession Model and its Application to Assessment of the Impact of the Chestnut Blight’, J Environ. Management 5, 161–179.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sievänen, R. and Burk, T. E.: 1993, ‘Adjusting a Process-Based Growth Model for Varing Site Conditions through Parameter Estimation’, Can. J. Forest Res. 23, 1837–1851.

    Google Scholar 

  • Siévanen, R. and Burk, T. E.: 1994, ‘Fitting Process-Based Models with Stand Growth Data: Problems and Experiences’, Forest Ecology and Management 69, 145–156.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sievänen, R., Hari, P., Orava, P. J., and Pelkonen, P.: 1988, ‘A Model for the Effect of Photosynthate Allocation and Soil Nitrogen on Plant Growth’, Ecol. Modelling 41, 55–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T. M., Shugart, H. H., West, D. C.: 1980, ‘FORHAB: A Forest Simulation Model to Predict Habitat Structure for Nongame Bird Species’, The Use of Multivariate Statistics in Studies of Wildlife Habitat – A Workshop, Burlington, VT, pp. 114–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T. M. and Urban. D. L.: 1988, ‘Scale and Resolution of Forest Structural Pattern’, Vegetatio 74, 143–150.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, A. M.: 1986, ‘Transient Responses of Foreste to CO2-Induced Climate Change: Simulation Experiments in Eastern North America’, Oecologia 68, 567–579.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, A. M. and Shugart, H. H. Jr.: 1984, ‘Integrating Forest Stand Simulations with Paleoecological Records to Examin Long-Term Forest Dynamics’, in Agren, G. I. (ed.), in State and Change of Forest Ecosystems, Swedish Univ. Agr. Sci., Uppsala, Sweden, pp. 333-356.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stage, A. R. and Hamilton, D. A.: 1981, ‘Sampling and Analytical Methods for Developing Risk-Rating Systems for Forest Pests’, in Hedden, R. L., Barras, S. J., and Coster, J. E. (eds.), Hazard Rating Systems in Forest Insect Pest Management, Symposium Proceedings, Athens, Georgia, July 31–August 1, 1980. GTR-WO-27, USDA, Forest Service, pp. 87–92.

  • Stoszek, K. J., Mika, P., Moore, J. A., and Osborne, H. L.: 1981, ‘Relationships of Douglas-Fir Tussock Moth Defoliation to Site and Stand Characteristics in Northern Idaho’, Forest Science 27, 431–442.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner, M. G., Gardner, R. H., and O'Neill, R. V.: 1995, ‘Ecological Dynamics at Broad Scales’, BioScience Supplement: Science and Biodiversity Policy, S: 29–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Torn, M. S. and Fried. J. S.: 1992, ‘Predicting the Impacts of Global Warming on Wildland Fire’, Clim. Change 21, 257–274.

    Google Scholar 

  • Urban, D. L., Bonan, G. B., Smith, T. M., Shugart, H. H.: 1991, ‘Spatial Applications of GAP Models’, Forest Ecology and Management, 42, 95–110.

    Google Scholar 

  • Urban, D. L. and Shugart, H. H.: 1992, ‘Individual-Based Models of Forest Succession’, in Glenn-Lewin, D. C., Peet, R, K., and Veblen, T. T. (eds.), Plant Succession Theory and Prediction, Chapman and Hall, London, pp. 249–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van der Voet, H. and Mohren, G.M. J.: 1994, ‘An Uncertainty Analysis of the Process-Based Growth Model FORGRO’, Forest Ecology and Management 69, 157–166.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vose, J.M. and Swank, W. T.: 1990, ‘A Conceptual Model of Forest Growth Emphasizing Stand Leaf Area’, in Dixon, R. K., Meldahl, R. S., Ruark, G. A., and Warren W. G. (eds.), Process Modeling of Gorest Growth Response to Environmental Stress, Timber Press, Portland, OR, pp. 278–288.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wagner, M. R.: 1990, ‘Individual Tree Physiological Responses to Global Climate Scenarios: A Conceptual Model of Effects on Forest Insect Outbreaks’, Proceedings of the 1990 Society of American Foresters National Convention, Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, Maryland, pp. 148–153.

  • Waldrop, T. A., Buckner, E. R., Shugart, H. H., and McGee, C. E.: 1986, ‘FORCAT: A Single Tree Model of Stand Development Following Clearcutting on the Cumberland Plateau’, Forest Science 32(2), 297–317.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waring, R. H.: 1983, ‘Estimation of Forest Growth and Efficiency in Relation to Canopy Leaf Area’, Adv. Ecol. Res. 32(2), 327–354.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waring, R. H.: 1987, ‘Characteristics of Trees Predisposed to Die’, BioScience 37(8), 569–577.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waring, R. H. and Pitman, G. B.: 1980, A Simple Model of Host Resistance to Bark Beetles, Oregon State University Research Note 65.

  • Waring R. H. and Running, S. W.: 1998, Forest Ecosystems: Analysis at Multiple Scales, Academic Press, San Diego, CA. p. 370.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weinstein, D. A., Shugart, H. H., and West, D. C.: 1982, The Long-Term Nutrient Retention Properties of Forest Ecosystems: A Simulation Investigation, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Environmental Sciences Division Publication Number 2039. ORNL/TM-8472. Oak Ridge TN 37830, p. 145.

  • Williams, M.: 1996, ‘A Three-Dimensional Model of Forest Development and Competition’, Ecol. Modelling 89, 73–98.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wotton, B. M. and Flannigan, M. D.: 1993, ‘Length of Fire Season in Changing Climate’, The Forestry Chronicle 69(2), 187–193.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wyckoff, P. H. and Clark, J. S.: 2000, ‘Predicting Tree Mortality from Diameter Growth: A Comparison of Approaches’, Can. J. Forest Res. 30, 156–167.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yaussy, D. A.: 2000, ‘Comparison of an Empirical Forest Growth and Yield Simulator and a Forest Gap Simulator Using Actual 30-year Growth from Two Even-Aged Forests in Kentucky’, Forest Ecology and Management 126, 385–398.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y., Reed, D. D., Cattelino, P. J., Gale, M. R., Jones, E. A., Liechty, H. O., Mroz, G. D.: 1994, ‘A Process-Based Growth Model for Young Red Pine’, Ecology and Management 69, 21–40.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 8089, Missoula, MT, 59807, USA

    Robert E. Keane

  2. Division of Wildlife and Ecology, CSIRO, G.P.O. Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

    Mike Austin

  3. Department of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA

    Christopher Field

  4. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, WZ III, D-34109, Kassel, Germany

    Andreas Huth

  5. Institute of Silviculture, University of Agricultural Sciences, Peter Jordanstrasse 70, A-1190, Vienna, Austria

    Manfred J. Lexer

  6. USDA-ARS, Jornada Experimental Range MSC 3JER, NMSU, Las Cruces, NM, 88003-0003, USA

    Debra Peters

  7. Western Ecology Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA

    Allen Solomon

  8. Botany Department, Duke University, Box 90339, Durham, NC, 27705, USA

    Peter Wyckoff

Authors
  1. Robert E. Keane
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mike Austin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Christopher Field
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Andreas Huth
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Manfred J. Lexer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Debra Peters
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Allen Solomon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Peter Wyckoff
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Keane, R.E., Austin, M., Field, C. et al. Tree Mortality in Gap Models: Application to Climate Change. Climatic Change 51, 509–540 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012539409854

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012539409854

Keywords

Search

Navigation