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On the Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Greenhouse Climate Change

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Abstract

Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from ΔT = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for ΔT ≤ 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, ΔT = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.

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  1. Institut für Mechanik III, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Hochschulstraβe 1, D-64289, Darmstadt, Germany

    Ralf Greve

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  1. Ralf Greve
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Greve, R. On the Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Greenhouse Climate Change. Climatic Change 46, 289–303 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005647226590

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