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Electoral Balancing in Federal and Sub-national Elections: The Case of Canada

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Abstract

The major premise of this study is that in federal countries voters can balance and moderate national policy by dividing electoral support between different parties in federal and sub-national elections. We compare the non-concurrent federal and provincial elections in Canada to assess the balancing properties of sub-national elections. The balancing hypothesis implies that the federal incumbent party may suffer additional electoral losses in provincial elections. We use several statistical tests - ordinary OLS, “fixed effect” and “unbalanced random effect” cross-section time series - to analyze Canadian electoral data for the period of 1949-1997. All tests sustain that the incumbent party at the federal level loses votes in provincial elections.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science, Columbia University, 706 International Affairs Building, 420 West 118th Street, New York, New York, 10027

    Robert S. Erikson

  2. Department of Political Science, Washington University, Campus Box 1063, 219 Eliot Hall, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO p, 63130-4899

    Mikhail G. Filippov

Authors
  1. Robert S. Erikson
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  2. Mikhail G. Filippov
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Erikson, R.S., Filippov, M.G. Electoral Balancing in Federal and Sub-national Elections: The Case of Canada. Constitutional Political Economy 12, 313–331 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012529023870

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