Abstract
The current debate on climate change and its policy implications often hinges on the credibility of global climate models. In considering this topic, we point out the danger of circular logic if climate model inputs (specifically, climate forcings) are determined from the same temperature record against which climate model outputs are tested. We suggest specific guidelines for avoiding this danger.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 1996, in Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, p. 39.
P. J. Michaels: 1996, Forging Consensus: Climate Change and the United Nations, George C. Marshall Institute, Washington, D.C.; R. Lindzen as quoted by T. Wilkie in The Independent, London, 1 Dec. 1995, p. 17.
S. F. B. Tett, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. E. Parker, and M. R. Allen: 1996, Science 274, 1170; B. D. Santer et al.: 1996, Nature 382, 39; G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, D. J. Erickson III, B. P. Briegleb, and P. J. Jaumann: 1996, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 3755; J. M. Haywood, D. L. Roberts, A. Slingo, J. M. Edwards, and K. P. Shine: 1997, J. Climate 10, 1562.
R. J. Charlson, J. Langner, H. Rodhe, C. B. Leovy, and S. G. Warren: 1991, Tellus 43AB, 152; J. T. Kiehl and B. P. Briegleb: 1993, Science 260, 311; and other studies, summarized in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 1995, in Houghton J. T. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp. 127-162, 181-182.
J. Hansen, M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy: 1997, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 352, 231.
T. M. L. Wigley: 1989, Nature 339, 365.
M. E. Schlesinger, X. Jiang, and R. J. Charlson: 1992, in Rosen, L. and Glasser, R. (eds.), Climate Change and Energy Policy, American Institute of Physics, New York, pp. 75-108; T. M. L. Wigley and S. C. B. Raper: 1992, Nature 357, 293; D. J. Thomson: 1995, Science 268, 59; J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, and A. Lacis et al.: 1997, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 25679.
J. M. Mitchell, Jr.: 1961, Ann. New York Acad. Sci. 95, 235; 1972: Quatern. Res. 2, 436.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 1996, op cit., p. 21.
R. C. Willson: 1997, Science 277, 1963.
J. M. Wallace, Y. Zhang, and J. A. Renwick: 1995, Science 270, 780.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 1996, op cit., p. 34.
I. Tegen, A. A. Lacis, and I. Fung: 1996, Nature 380, 419.
R. L. Gilliland and S. H. Schneider: 1984, Nature 310, 38.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rodhe, H., Charlson, R.J. & Anderson, T.L. Avoiding Circular Logic in Climate Modeling. Climatic Change 44, 419–422 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005536902789
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005536902789