Skip to main content
Log in

Misadventures In Conditional Expectation: The Two-Envelope Problem

  • Published:
Erkenntnis Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Several fallacies of conditionalization are illustrated, using the two-envelope problem as a case in point

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  • Bickel, P. and K. Doksum: 1977, Mathematical Statistics, Holden-Day, San Francisco, p. 6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Broome, J.: 1995, ‘The Two-Envelope Paradox’, Analysis 55(1), 6-11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chihara, C.: 1995, ‘The Mystery of Julius: A Paradox in Decision Theory’, Philosophical Studies 80, 1-16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeffrey, R.: 1995, Probabilistic Thinking. Princeton University.

  • Parzen, E.: 1960, Modern Probability Theory and its Applications, John Wiley, New York, p. 384.

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.: 1954, The Foundations of Statistics, John Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zabell, S.: 1988, ‘Loss and Gain: The Exchange Paradox’, In: J. Bernardo et al. (eds.), Bayesian Statistics 3: Proceedings of the Third Valencia International Meeting. Oxford, pp. 233-236.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Wagner, C.G. Misadventures In Conditional Expectation: The Two-Envelope Problem. Erkenntnis 51, 233–241 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005488325727

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005488325727

Keywords

Navigation