Abstract
We present a simple algorithm to model the surface air temperature trends at the middle-high latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres for the last century. Unlike previous approaches, based on the variation of the solar irradiance only, the algorithm here presented is the sum of one more external influence: the periodic variation of insolation due to the astronomical nutation of the Earth's axis. The model we present predicts the anticorrelated mean surface air temperature trends, measured at middle-high latitudes of the two hemispheres, during the period of low solar irradiance. According to Milankovitch, a change of the Earth's obliquity means a variation of insolation mainly at the middle-high latitudes; this variation takes opposite sign for northern and southern hemispheres.
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GASPERINI†, M., Chierici, F. SHORT-TERM PERIODIC CLIMATIC CHANGE: A COMBINED EFFECT BETWEEN THE SUNSPOT CYCLE AND THE LUNAR NUTATION. Climatic Change 35, 229–240 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005316320718
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005316320718