Indian Monsoon Variability in a Global Warming Scenario
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) constituted by the World Meteorological Organisation provides expert guidance regarding scientific and technical aspects of the climate problem. Since 1990 IPCC has, at five-yearlyintervals, assessedand reported on the current state of knowledge and understanding of the climate issue. These reports have projected the behaviour of the Asian monsoon in the warming world. While the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC, 1996) on climate model projections of Asian/Indian monsoon stated ``Most climate models produce more rainfall over South Asia in a warmer climate with increasing CO2'', the recent IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report states ``It is likely that the warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase in Asian summer monsoon variability and changes in monsoon strength.''
Climate model projections(IPCC, 2001) also suggest more El Niño – like events in the tropical Pacific, increase in surface temperatures and decrease in the northern hemisphere snow cover. The Indian Monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon and its links with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, northern hemisphere surface temperature and Eurasian snow are well documented.
In the light of the IPCC globalwarming projections on the Asian monsoon, the interannual and decadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall over India and its teleconnections have been examined by using observed data for the 131-year (1871–2001) period. While the interannual variations showyear-to-year random fluctuations, thedecadal variations reveal distinct alternate epochs of above and below normal rainfall. The epochs tend to last for about three decades. There is no clear evidence to suggest that the strength and variability of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) nor the epochal changes are affected by the global warming. Though the 1990s have been the warmest decade of the millennium(IPCC, 2001), the IMR variability has decreased drastically.
Connections between the ENSO phenomenon, Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the Eurasian snow with IMR reveal that the correlations are not only weak but have changed signs in the early 1990s suggesting that the IMR has delinked not only with the Pacific but with the Northern Hemisphere/Eurasian continent also. The fact that temperature/snow relationships with IMR are weak further suggests that global warming need not be a cause for the recent ENSO-Monsoon weakening.
Observed snow depth over theEurasian continent has been increasing, which could be a result of enhanced precipitation due to the global warming.
- Ashok, K., Guan, Z., Yamagata, T. (2001) Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28: pp. 4499-4502
- Ashrit, R. G., Rupa Kumar, K., Krishna Kumar, K. (2001) ENSO-Monsoon relationships in a greenhouse warming scenario. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28: pp. 1727-1730
- Bamzai, A. S., Shukla, J. (1999) Relation between Eurasian snow cover, snow depth and the Indian summer monsoon: An observational study. J. Clim. 12: pp. 3117-3132
- Bamzai, A. S., Marx, L. (2000) COLA AGCM simulation of the effect of anomalous spring snow over Eurasia on the Indian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 126: pp. 2575-2584
- Barnett, T. P., Dumenil, L., Schlese, U., Roeckner, E., Latif, M. (1989) Effects of Eurasian snow cover on regional and global climate variations. J. Atmos. Sci. 46: pp. 661-685
- Behera, S. K., Krishnan, R., Yamagata, T. (1999) Unusual ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian ocean during 1994. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: pp. 3001-3004
- Blanford, H. F. L. (1884) On the connexion of Himalayan snowfall and seasons of drought in India. Proc. Roy. Soc. London 37: pp. 3-22
- Chang, C. P., Harr, P., Ju, J. (2001) Possible roles of Atlantic circulations on the weakening Indian monsoon rainfall-ENSO relationship. J. Climate 14: pp. 2376-2380
- De, U. S. (2001) Climate change impact: Regional scenario. Mausam 51: pp. 201-212
- Gadgil, S., Sajani, S. (1998) Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs. Clim. Dyn. 14: pp. 659-689
- Hahn, D. G., Shukla, J. (1976) An apparent relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Atmos. Sci. 33: pp. 2461-2462
- Climate Change 1995. The science of climate change. Contribution of Working Group One to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Climate Change 2001. Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C. A. eds. (2001) Contributions of working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Jones, P. D. (1994) Recent warming in global temperature series. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21: pp. 1149-1152
- Joseph, P. V. (1976) Climatic change in monsoon and cyclones 1891–1874. Proc of Symposium on Tropical Monsoons. IITM, Pune, pp. 378-387
- Khandekar, M. L. (1991) Eurasian snow cover, Indian monsoon and ENSO – a synthesis. Atmos. Ocean 29: pp. 636-647
- Khandekar M. L.: 1996, El Niño/Southern oscillation, Indian monsoon and world grain yields – A synthesis, In: M.I. El-Sabh et al., (eds), Land-based and Marine Hazards, pp. 79–95.
- Khandekar, M. L.: 2000, Uncertainties in green house gas induced climate change, Report prepared for Science and Technology Branch, Alberta Environment, ISBN 0-7785-1051-4, Edmonton, Alberta, 50 pp.
- Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A. (1997) Climatic impact of El Niño/La Nina on the Indian monsoon: A new perspective. Weather 52: pp. 39-46
- Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A. (1997) Rainfall variability over south-east Asia – connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: New perspectives. Int. J. Climatol. 17: pp. 1155-1168
- Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A. (1999) Climatology and variability of Historical Soviet Snow depth data: Some new perspectives in snow-Indian monsoon teleconnections. Clim. Dyn. 15: pp. 475-489
- Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A. (2001) Monsoon rainfall variations and teleconnections over South and East Asia. Int. J. Climatol. 21: pp. 603-616
- Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A., Singh, S. V. (1997) Association of the Indian summer monsoon with the Northern hemisphere mid-latitude circulation. Int. J. Climatol. 17: pp. 1055-1067
- Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A., Sabade, S. S. (2001) El Niño Southern Oscillation, Eurasian snow cover and the Indian monsoon rainfall. Proceedings Indian National Science Academy 67A: pp. 361-368
- Kripalani, R. H., Kim, B. J., Oh, J.-H., and Moon, S. E.: 2002a, Relationship between Soviet snow and Korean rainfall, Int. J. Climatol. in press.
- Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A., and Sabade, S. S.: 2002b, Western Himalayan snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall: A Re-examination with INSAT and NCEP/NCAR data, Theor. Appl. Climatol. in press.
- Kripalani, R. H., Singh, S. V., Vernekar, A. D., Thapliyal, V. (1996) Empirical study on Nimbus-7 snow mass and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 16: pp. 23-34
- Krishna Kumar, K., Soman, M. K., Rupa Kumar, K. (1995) Seasonal forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: A review. Weather 50: pp. 449-467
- Krishna Kumar, K., Rajagopalan, B., Cane, A. (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284: pp. 2156-2159
- Kulkarni, A., Kripalani, R. H. (1998) Rainfall patterns over India: Classification with Fuzzy cmeans method. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 59: pp. 137-146
- Kulkarni, A., Kripalani, R. H., Singh, S. V. (1992) Classification of summer monsoon rainfall patterns over India. Int. J. Climatol. 12: pp. 269-280
- Kulkarni, J. R., Mujumdar, M., Gharge, S. P., Satyan, V., Pant, G. B. (2001) Impact of solar variability on the low frequency variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Mausam 52: pp. 67-82
- Pal, P. K., Thapliyal, P. K., Dwavedi, A. K. (2001) Regional climate changes due to double CO2 simulation by CCM3. Mausam 52: pp. 221-228
- Pant, G. B., Rupa Kumar, K. (1997) Climates of South Asia. John Wiley Sons, Chichester, UK
- Pant, G. B., Rupa Kumar, K., Parthasarathy, B., Borgaonkar, H. P. (1988) Long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon and related parameters. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 5: pp. 469-481
- Parthasarathy, B., Rupa Kumar, K., Munot, A. A. (1991) Evidence of secular variations in Indian monsoon rainfall-circulation relationships. J. Clim. 4: pp. 927-938
- Rajeevan, M. (2001) Prediction of Indian summer monsoon: Status, problems and prospects. Current Sci. 81: pp. 1451-1457
- Rupa Kumar, K., Ashrit, R. G. (2001) Regional aspects of global climate change simulations: Validation and assessment of climate response over Indian monsoon region to transient increase of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Mausam 52: pp. 229-244
- Rupa Kumar, K., Pant, G. B., Parthasarathy, B., Sontakke, N. A. (1992) Spatial and subseasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 12: pp. 257-268
- Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Viayachandran, P. N., Yamagata, T. (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: pp. 360-363
- Shukla, J., Mooley, D. A. (1987) Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115: pp. 695-703
- Singh, O. P. (2001) Long term trends in the frequency of monsoonal cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian ocean. Mausam 52: pp. 655-658
- Stephenson, D. B., Douville, H., Rupa Kumar, K. (2001) Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon. Mausam 52: pp. 213-220
- Thapliyal, V. (2001) Long range forecast of summer monsoon rainfall over India: Evolution and development of a new power transfer model. Proceedings Indian National Science Academy 67A: pp. 343-359
- Thapliyal, V., Kulshrestha, S. M. (1991) Climate changes and trends over India. Mausam 42: pp. 333-338
- Thapliyal, V., Kulshrestha, S. M. (1992) Recent models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India. Mausam 43: pp. 239-248
- Vernekar, A. D., Zhou, J., Shukla, J. (1995) The effect of Eurasian snow cover on the Indian monsoon. J. Clim. 8: pp. 248-266
- Wang, B., An, S.-I. (2001) Why properties of El Niño changed during the late 1970s. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28: pp. 3709-3712
- Wang, B., Wu, R., Lau, K.-M. (2001) Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the Indian and the Western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons. J. Clim. 14: pp. 4073-4090
- Webster, P. J., Palmer, T. N. (1997) The past and future of El Niño. Nature 390: pp. 562-564
- Webster, P. J., Magana, V. O., Palmer, T. N., Shukla, J., Thomas, R. A., Yanai, M., Yasunari, T. (1998) Monsoons: Processes, predictability and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res. 103: pp. 14451-14510
- Webster, P. J., Moore, A. M., Loschning, J. P., Leben, R. R. (1999) Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian ocean during 1997–1998. Nature 401: pp. 356-360
- WMO: 1966, Climatic Change, WMO Technical Note No. 79, WMO No. 195-TP-100, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
- Ye, H. (2000) Decadal variability of Russian winter snow accumulations and its associations with Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. Int. J. Climatol. 20: pp. 1709-1728
- Ye, H., Mather, J. R. (1997) Polar snow cover changes and global warming. Int. J. Climatol. 17: pp. 155-162
- Indian Monsoon Variability in a Global Warming Scenario
Volume 29, Issue 2 , pp 189-206
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors