Climatic Change

, Volume 56, Issue 1, pp 37–56

Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policies: Part 1 – Model Presentation

  • Ferenc L. Toth
  • Thomas Bruckner
  • Hans-Martin Füssel
  • Marian Leimbach
  • Gerhard Petschel-Held
Article

DOI: 10.1023/A:1021332312119

Cite this article as:
Toth, F.L., Bruckner, T., Füssel, HM. et al. Climatic Change (2003) 56: 37. doi:10.1023/A:1021332312119

Abstract

An integrated assessment model (IAM) conceived in the vein ofthe inverse approach is introduced. The model is designed tohelp social actors in making informed judgments about climatechange impact targets, mitigation costs, and implementation mechanisms.Based on these normative decisions, the model verifies whetherthere exist long-term future emission paths that satisfy theuser-defined constraints. If they do, the model determines anemission corridor containing all permissible emission trajectories.An overview of the IAM is provided and short descriptions ofthe model components are presented. Forward and inverse modesof application are explained. Examples based on impacts of climatechange on aggregated potential crop production in Western Europeand South Asia illustrate how the model can be applied in differentmodes. The examples demonstrate how the inverse approach separatessocial judgments shaping climate policy from the model-basedanalysis of their implications. The examples also show the differencein climate change tolerance between developed regions in temperatezones and less developed regions in already warm climate zones.

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ferenc L. Toth
    • 1
  • Thomas Bruckner
    • 2
  • Hans-Martin Füssel
    • 1
  • Marian Leimbach
    • 1
  • Gerhard Petschel-Held
    • 1
  1. 1.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, TelegrafenbergPotsdamGermany
  2. 2.Institute for Energy EngineeringTechnical University of BerlinBerlinGermany