Climatic Change

, Volume 55, Issue 4, pp 413–427

Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?

Authors

  • Cédric Bertrand
    • Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. LemaîtreUniversité catholique de Louvain
  • Jean-Pascal van Ypersele
    • Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. LemaîtreUniversité catholique de Louvain
  • André Berger
    • Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. LemaîtreUniversité catholique de Louvain
Article

DOI: 10.1023/A:1020736804608

Cite this article as:
Bertrand, C., van Ypersele, J. & Berger, A. Climatic Change (2002) 55: 413. doi:10.1023/A:1020736804608

Abstract

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002