Health Care Management Science

, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp 297–305

Forecasting Demand of Emergency Care


    • School of MathematicsKingston University
  • Mark Patrick Joy
    • School of MathematicsKingston University
  • Jon Pearson
    • Applied Research UnitBromley Hospitals NHS Trust, Farnborough Hospital, Farnborough Common

DOI: 10.1023/A:1020390425029

Cite this article as:
Jones, S.A., Joy, M.P. & Pearson, J. Health Care Management Science (2002) 5: 297. doi:10.1023/A:1020390425029


This paper describes a model that can forecast the daily number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions in an acute hospital. Out of sample forecasts 32 day days in advance, have an RMS error of 3% of the mean number of beds used for emergency admissions. We find that the number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions is related to both air temperature and PHLS data on influenza like illnesses. We find that a period of high volatility, indicated by GARCH errors, will result in an increase in waiting times in the A&E Department. Furthermore, volatility gives more warning of waiting times in A&E than total bed occupancy.

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002