Comparing impacts across climate models
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
In this paper we combine a climate-forecasting model, COSMIC, with a global impact model, GIM, to compare the market impacts of climate change projected by 14 general circulation models. Given a specific date (2100), carbon dioxide concentration (612 ppmv), and global temperature sensitivity (2.5°C), predicted impacts to economies are calculated using climate-response functions from Experimental and Cross-sectional evidence. The Cross-sectional impact model predicts small global benefits across all climate models, whereas the Experimental impact model predicts a range from small benefits to small damages. High-latitude countries are less sensitive to temperature increases than low-latitude countries because they are currently cool. Uniform global temperature changes overestimate global damages because they underestimate the benefits in polar regions and overestimate the damages in tropical regions compared to the GCM predictions.
C. Azar, Weight factors in cost-benefit analysis of climate change, Env. and Res. Econ. 13 (1999) 249–268.
G.J. Boer, N. McFarlane and M. Lazare, Greenhouse gas induced climate change simulated with the Canadian Climate Centre second generation general circulation model, J. Clim. 5 (1992) 1045–1077.
S.J. Cohen, G.J. Boer, N. McFarlane, J.P. Blanchet, M. Lazare, N.E. Sargent, F.G. Majaess, D.P. Phillips, M. Webb and T. Cutler, Application of the Canadian Climate Center general circulation model output for regional climate impact studies, Canadian Climate Centre, Downsview, Ontario, Canada (1990).
S. Fankhauser, Valuing Climate Change, The Economics of the Greenhouse (Earthscan, London, 1995).
S. Fankhauser, R. Tol and D. Pearce, The aggregation of climate change damages: A welfare theoretic approach, Env. and Res. Econ. 10 (1997) 249–266.
W.L. Gates, A. Henderson-Sellers, C. Boer, A. Folland, B. Kitoh, F. McAvaney, N. Semazzi, A. Smith, Q. Weaver and C. Zeng, Climate models – evaluation, in: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, eds. J.T. Houghton et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996).
J. Hansen, G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy and L. Travis, Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II, Mon. Wea. Rev. 111 (1983) 609–662.
J. Hansen, A. Lacis, D. Rind, L. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy and J. Lerner, Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms, in: Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, Geophys. Monogr. Vol. 29, eds. J. Hansen and T. Takahashi (American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1984) pp. 130–163.
J. Hansen, I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, L. Russell and P. Stone, Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res. 93 (1988) 9341–9364.
T.L. Hart, W. Bourke, B.J. McAvaney, B.W. Forgan and J.L. McGregor, Atmospheric general circulation simulations with the BMRC global spectral model: The impact of revised physical parameterizations, J. Clim. 3 (1990) 436–459.
A. Henderson-Sellers, R.E. Dickinson, T.B. Durbidge, P.J. Kennedy, K. McGuffie and A.J. Pitman, Tropical deforestation: Modelling local to regional-scale climate change, J. Geophys. Res. 98 (1993) 7289–7315.
C. Hope, J. Anderson and P. Wenman, Policy analysis of the greenhouse effect: An application of the PAGE model, Energy Policy 21 (1993) 327–338.
J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg and K. Maskell, eds., Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996).
M. Hulme, S.C. Raper and T.M. Wigley, An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC), Energy Policy 23 (1995a) 347–355.
M. Hulme, T. Jiang and T.M. Wigley, SCENGEN, a climate change scenario generator, a user manual, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK (1995b).
A. Manne, R. Mendelsohn and R. Richels, MERGE: A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies, Energy Policy 23 (1993) 17–34.
N.A. McFarlane, G.J. Boer, J.P. Blanchet and M. Lazare, The Canadian Climate Centre second generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate, J. Clim. 5 (1992) 1013–1044.
R. Mendelsohn and M.E. Schlesinger, Climate-response functions, Ambio 28 (1999) 362–366.
R. Mendelsohn, W. Morrison, M.E. Schlesinger and N.G. Andronova, Country-specific market impacts of climate change, Climatic Change (1999), in press.
R. Mendelsohn and J. Neumann, eds., The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998).
W.D. Nordhaus, To slow or not to slow, Econ. J. 5 (1991) 920–937.
W.D. Nordhaus, Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change (The MIT Press, Cambridge, 1994).
B.D. Santer, T.M. Wigley, M.E. Schlesinger and J.F. Mitchell, Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results, Report No. 47, Max-Planck-Institut f¨ur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 1990.
M.E. Schlesinger and N. Andronova, Regional climate-change scenarios based on 2?CO2 and 4? CO2 equilibrium climate-changes simulated by the UIUC atmospheric general circulation/mixed-layer ocean model, Report to EPRI, Urbana, IL, 1994.
M.E. Schlesinger and L.J. Williams, COSMIC – Country Specific Model for Intertemporal Climate, Computer Software, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 1997.
M.E. Schlesinger and Z.C. Zhao, Seasonal climate changes induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric GCM/mixedlayer ocean model, J. Clim. 2 (1989) 459–495.
M.E. Schlesinger, N. Andronova, A. Ghanem, S. Malyshev, T. Reichler, E. Rozanov, W. Wang and F. Yang, Geographical scenarios of greenhouse gas and anthropogenic-sulfate aerosol induced climate changes, Climate Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, 1997a.
M.E. Schlesinger, N. Andronova, B. Entwistle, A. Ghanem, N. Ramankutty, W. Wang and F. Yang, Modeling and simulation of climate and climate change, in: Past and Present Variability of the Solar-Terrestrial System: Measurement, Data Analysis and Theoretical Models. Proceedings of the International School of Physics “Enrico Fermi” CXXXIII, eds. G. Castagnoli and A. Provenzale (IOS Press, Amsterdam, 1997b).
M.E. Schlesinger, N. Andronova, A. Ghanem, S. Malyshev, E. Rozanov, W. Wang and F. Yang, Geographical scenarios of greenhouse gas and anthropogenic-sulfate aerosol induced climate change, Do We Understand Global Climate Change? (Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences, Oslo, 1998).
M.E. Schlesinger, S. Malyshev, E.V. Rozanov, F. Yang and N.G. Andronova, Geographical Distributions of Temperature Change for 48 R. Mendelsohn et al. / Comparing impacts across climate models the SRES Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1999, submitted.
S.L. Thompson and D. Pollard, A global climate model (GENESIS) with a land surface transfer scheme (LSX) Part 1. Present climate simulation, J. Clim. 8 (1995) 732–761.
R. Tol, The damage costs of climate change: Towards more comprehensive calculations, Env. and Res. Econ. 5 (1995) 353–374.
W.C. Wang, M.P. Dudek and X. Liang, Inadequacy of effective CO2 as a proxy to assess the greenhouse effect of other radiative gases, Geophys. Res. Lett. 19 (1992) 1375–1378.
W. Washington and G. Meehl, Greenhouse sensitivity experiments with penetrative cumulus convection and tropical cirrus albedo effects, Clim. Dyn. 8 (1992) 211–233.
R.T. Wetherald and S. Manabe, An investigation of cloud cover change in response to thermal forcing, Climatic Change 8 (1986) 5–23.
R.T. Wetherald and S. Manabe, Cloud feedback processes in a general circulation model, J. Atmos. Sci. 45 (1988) 1397–1415.
T.M. Wigley, R. Richels and J.A. Edmonds, Alternative emissions pathways for stabilizing CO2 concentrations, Nature 379 (1996) 240–243.
C.A. Wilson and J.F. Mitchell, A doubled CO2 climate sensitivity experiment with a global climate model including a simple ocean, J. Geophys. Res. 92 (1987) 13,315–13,343.
G.W. Yohe and M.E. Schlesinger, Sea level change: The expected economic cost of protection or abandonment in the United States, Climatic Change 38 (1998) 447–472.
- Comparing impacts across climate models
Volume 1, Issue 1 , pp 37-48
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Yale University, 360 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
- 2. University of Illinois, 105 South Gregory, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
- 3. Electric Power Research Institute, PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, CA, 94303, USA