, Volume 1, Issue 1-4, pp 91-122

Cross-Media Models of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Airshed

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A continuous, deterministic watershed model of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, linked to an atmospheric deposition model is used to examine nutrient loads to the Chesapeake Bay under different management scenarios. The Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran, Version 11 simulation code is used at an hourly time-step for ten years of simulation in the watershed. The Regional Acid Deposition Model simulates management options in reducing atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. Nutrient loads are summed over daily periods and used for loading a simulation of the Chesapeake estuary employing the Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package. Averaged over the ten-year simulation, loads are compared for scenarios under 1985 conditions, forecasted conditions in the year 2000, and estimated conditions under a limit of technology scenario. Limit of technology loads are a 50%, 64%, and 42% reduction from the 1985 loads in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended solids, respectively. Urban loads, which include point source, on-site wastewater disposal systems, combined sewer overflows, and nonpoint source loads have the highest flux of nutrient loads to the Chesapeake, followed by crop land uses.