Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife
- Byron K. Williams
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Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.
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- Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife
Environmental and Ecological Statistics
Volume 8, Issue 3 , pp 269-288
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- adaptive resource management
- Bayes’ theorem
- dynamic model
- optimal control
- wildlife populations
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Biological Resources Division, United States Geological Survey, 12202 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA, 22092, USA