Journal of Economic Growth

, Volume 6, Issue 1, pp 39–53

Linkages, Thresholds, and Development

  • Morgan Kelly

DOI: 10.1023/A:1009846027382

Cite this article as:
Kelly, M. Journal of Economic Growth (2001) 6: 39. doi:10.1023/A:1009846027382


Growth is rarehistorically, with short expansions interspersed with long periodsof stasis. We examine how well this can be explained by a generalclass of Schumpeterian growth models that treat development asa progress through a space of commodities, from simple to morecomplex goods. This process of sequential innovation in a partiallyordered network of commodities is called linkage formation. The central result of this article is thatSchumpeterian growth models exhibit generic threshold behavior.Below a critical probability of linkage formation, developmentgradually ceases. Above the critical probability, innovationcontinues with probability one.

linkages threshold effects growth 

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Morgan Kelly
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity College DublinDublin4Ireland

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