, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp 247-282

Derandomizing Stochastic Prediction Strategies

Abstract

In this paper we continue study of the games of prediction with expert advice with uncountably many experts. A convenient interpretation of such games is to construe the pool of experts as one “stochastic predictor”, who chooses one of the experts in the pool at random according to the prior distribution on the experts and then replicates the (deterministic ) predictions of the chosen expert. We notice that if the stochastic predictor's total loss is at most L with probability at least p then the learner's loss can be bounded by cL + aln \(\frac{1}{{\text{P}}}\) for the usual constants c and a. This interpretation is used to revamp known results and obtain new results on tracking the best expert. It is also applied to merging overconfident experts and to fitting polynomials to data.