Surveys in Geophysics

, Volume 18, Issue 2, pp 131-146

First online:


  • I. CHARVÀTOVÀAffiliated withBočnì II, Geophysical Institute AS CR

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The time series of solar and volcanic activities have been processed to show, mostly by means of statistical characteristics, the exceptional and recurring pattern of these phenomena in the intervals of the exceptional and recurring pattern of solar motion, i.e. in the intervals of the Sun's motion along the trefoils which reoccur in steps of 178.7 years. Nearly the same sets of five sunspot cycles have been found in the latest trefoil intervals (∼1730–1780 and 1910–1960), their length being constant and equal to 10 years (cycles No. 15–19). The steadily attenuated volcanic activity have been pointed out in the three latest trefoil intervals. The long-term maxima of surface air temperature occured in the central decades of the trefoil intervals. The results indicate a primary role of solar motion in a causal chain of ST-relations and a need of taking the Solar System as a whole into account to explain climatic changes. The solar motion can be computed in advance. Predictive assesments, so far in form of analogies, have been made: Because the solar motion in the next decades will be chaotic, lower and longer solar cycles (with irregular length), ocurrence of huge volcanic events and a decrease of global surface air temperature can be expected.

Climatic change inertial motion of the sun solar-terrestrial variability volcanic activity