Abstract
A number of recent studies have examined the hypothesis of induced travel in an attempt to quantify the phenomenon (Hansen & Huang 1997; Noland, forthcoming). No study has yet attempted to adjust for potential simultaneity bias in the results. This study addresses this issue by the use of an instrumental variable (two stage least squares) approach. Metropolitan level data compiled by the Texas Transportation Institute for their annual congestion report is used in the analysis and urbanized land area is used as an instrument for lane miles of capacity. While this is not an ideal instrument, results still suggest a strong causal relationship but probably that most previous work has had an upward bias in the coefficient estimates. The effect of lane mile additions on VMT growth is forecast and found to account for about 15% of annual VMT growth with substantial variation between metropolitan areas. This effect appears to be closely correlated with percent growth in lane miles, suggesting that rapidly growing areas can attribute a greater share of their VMT growth to growth in lane miles.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arnott R & Small K (1994) The economics of traffic congestion. American Scientist 82 (Sept./ Oct.).
DeCorla-Souza P & Cohen H (1998) Accounting for Induced Travel in Evaluation of Urban Highway Expansion, FHWA, workshop paper electronically published at www.ota.fhwa.dot.gov/steam/doc.htm.
Delucchi M (1997) Annualized Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Use in the United States, Based on 1990-1991 Data, Vol. 1-23, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, UCD-ITS-RR-96-3, 1996-97.
Goodwin P (1996) Empirical evidence on induced traffic. Transportation 23(1) (Feb.), 35-54.
Hansen M & Huang Y-L (1997) Road supply and traffic in California urban areas. Transportation Research A 31, 205-218.
Heanue K (1998) Highway capacity and induced travel: Issues, evidence and implications, Transportation Research Circular, no. 481, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.
Johnston R & Ceerla R (1996) The effects of new high-occupancy vehicle lanes on travel and emissions. Transportation Research 30A(1), 35-50.
Johnston J (1984) Econometric Methods, 3rd edition, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Johnston J & DiNardo J (1997) Econometric Methods, 4th edition, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Mackie P (1996) Induced traffic and economic appraisal. Transportation 23.
Noland RB (forthcoming) Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel. Transportation Research A.
Schrank DL & Lomax TJ (1997) Urban Roadway Congestion - 1982 to 1994, Volume 2:Methodology and Urbanized Area Data, Research Report 1131-9, Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, TX.
Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment, Department of Transport (UK) (1994) Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic, HMSO, London.
US DOT, Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration (1997) Condition and Performance: 1997 Status of the Nation's Surface Transportation System, Report to Congress, Washington, DC.
Zahavi Y & Ryan JM (1980) Stability of travel components over time. Transportation Research Record 750, 19-26.
Zahavi Y & Talvitie A (1980) Regularities in travel time and money expenditures. Transportation Research Record 750, 13-19.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Noland, R.B., Cowart, W.A. Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel. Transportation 27, 363–390 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005288826997
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005288826997